NELCO
Nelco
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Nelco (NELCO) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is NELCO a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100.
On the numbers, Nelco (NELCO) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100, weighing a 46% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
NELCO share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NELCO history (8%/yr drift, 50%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NELCO 2027 | ₹466 | ₹890 | ₹1,712 | -5% |
| NELCO 2028 | ₹343 | ₹844 | ₹2,158 | -10% |
| NELCO 2029 | ₹268 | ₹811 | ₹2,511 | -14% |
| NELCO 2030 | ₹216 | ₹787 | ₹2,879 | -16% |
| NELCO 2031 | ₹177 | ₹770 | ₹3,207 | -18% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NELCO goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NELCO
- Nelco is part of the NSE universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,511.
The bear case & risks
- High historical volatility (50%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹268.
NELCO volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years NELCO compounded at 8%/year with annualized volatility of 50%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹466–₹1,712, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NELCO price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NELCO price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NELCO hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NELCO price target & forecast page.
NELCO MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NELCO with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 37.1% | 2.7× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 37.1% | 2.7× |
| Dhan | 40.0% | 2.5× |
Compare every broker on the NELCO MTF page.
NELCO vs peers,sector comparison
About Nelco: sector, index & market-cap context
Nelco (NELCO) is an NSE-listed company.
How the NELCO Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Nelco's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NELCO analysis, FAQs
Is Nelco (NELCO) a good buy?
On the numbers, Nelco (NELCO) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100, weighing a 46% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NELCO overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation ratios for NELCO are tracked live on Downstox.
What is the NELCO share price target for 2031?
NELCO's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹770, with an 80% range of ₹177–₹3,207 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NELCO doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NELCO reaching ₹1,881 (2×) within 5 years is 21%.
What is the bull case for NELCO?
Nelco is part of the NSE universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
What are the risks in NELCO?
High historical volatility (50%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.