Case study

NESCO

NESCO

Worth a closer look1y model +4.7%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

NESCO (NESCO) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is NESCO a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

NESCO (NESCO) trades at ₹1,133,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100.

On the numbers, NESCO (NESCO) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing fairly valued at 19.4× earnings, ROE of 14.7%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

NESCO fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹7,987 Cr
Current price
₹1,133
P/E ratio
19.4×
P/B ratio
2.67×
Book value
₹425
Dividend yield
0.62%
ROCE
18.3%
ROE
14.7%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is NESCO overvalued? NESCO P/E vs its sector

NESCO's P/E of 19.4× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.62% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

NESCO P/E
19.4×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
NESCO div yield
0.62%
Peer median yield
1.65%

NESCO share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NESCO history (10%/yr drift, 33%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
NESCO 2027₹785₹1,191₹1,798+5%
NESCO 2028₹681₹1,230₹2,257+8%
NESCO 2029₹627₹1,293₹2,715+14%
NESCO 2030₹585₹1,362₹3,180+20%
NESCO 2031₹550₹1,437₹3,639+26%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability NESCO goes up, or doubles?

55%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
62%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
26%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,276 within 5 years

The bull case for NESCO

  • A 19.4× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • A healthy 14.7% return on equity.
  • Strong ROCE (18.3%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,715.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹627.

NESCO volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years NESCO compounded at 10%/year with annualized volatility of 33%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹785₹1,798, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

NESCO price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
4.7%
80% range₹785–₹1,798
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
13.6%
80% range₹627–₹2,715
P(price ↑)59%
P(price 2×)16%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
26.3%
80% range₹550–₹3,639
P(price ↑)62%
P(price 2×)26%

NESCO price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
NESCO simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds NESCO hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the NESCO price target & forecast page.

NESCO Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NESCO scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

NESCO MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NESCO with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.0%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST30.9%3.2×
DhanCHEAPEST30.9%3.2×

Compare every broker on the NESCO MTF page.

NESCO vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
NESCO (this stock)19.4×0.62%₹7,987 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About NESCO: sector, index & market-cap context

NESCO (NESCO) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹7,987 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the NESCO Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of NESCO's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

NESCO analysis, FAQs

Is NESCO (NESCO) a good buy?

On the numbers, NESCO (NESCO) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing fairly valued at 19.4× earnings, ROE of 14.7%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is NESCO overvalued or undervalued?

NESCO trades at 19.4× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the NESCO share price target for 2031?

NESCO's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,437, with an 80% range of ₹550₹3,639 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability NESCO doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of NESCO reaching ₹2,276 (2×) within 5 years is 26%.

What is the bull case for NESCO?

A 19.4× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. A healthy 14.7% return on equity. Strong ROCE (18.3%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in NESCO?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on NESCO