NEWGEN
Newgen Software Tech
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Newgen Software Tech (NEWGEN) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is NEWGEN a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Newgen Software Tech (NEWGEN) trades at ₹483,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100.
On the numbers, Newgen Software Tech (NEWGEN) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 20.7× earnings, ROE of 20.2%, a 17% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
NEWGEN fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is NEWGEN overvalued? NEWGEN P/E vs its sector
NEWGEN's P/E of 20.7× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 1.24% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
NEWGEN share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NEWGEN history (-37%/yr drift, 55%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEWGEN 2027 | ₹140 | ₹283 | ₹578 | -41% |
| NEWGEN 2028 | ₹63 | ₹171 | ₹468 | -65% |
| NEWGEN 2029 | ₹30 | ₹101 | ₹338 | -79% |
| NEWGEN 2030 | ₹14 | ₹60 | ₹246 | -88% |
| NEWGEN 2031 | ₹7 | ₹36 | ₹173 | -93% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NEWGEN goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NEWGEN
- A 20.7× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
- High return on equity (20.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (25.8%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹338.
The bear case & risks
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 17% chance of finishing above today's price.
- High historical volatility (55%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹30.
NEWGEN volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years NEWGEN compounded at -37%/year with annualized volatility of 55%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹140–₹578, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NEWGEN price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NEWGEN price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NEWGEN hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NEWGEN price target & forecast page.
NEWGEN Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NEWGEN scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
NEWGEN MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NEWGEN with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 40.4% | 2.5× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 40.4% | 2.5× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 40.4% | 2.5× |
Compare every broker on the NEWGEN MTF page.
Which ace investors hold NEWGEN?
Held by 1 tracked superstar investor (from public NSE/BSE disclosures):
NEWGEN vs peers,sector comparison
About Newgen Software Tech: sector, index & market-cap context
Newgen Software Tech (NEWGEN) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹6,869 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the NEWGEN Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Newgen Software Tech's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NEWGEN analysis, FAQs
Is Newgen Software Tech (NEWGEN) a good buy?
On the numbers, Newgen Software Tech (NEWGEN) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 20.7× earnings, ROE of 20.2%, a 17% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NEWGEN overvalued or undervalued?
NEWGEN trades at 20.7× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the NEWGEN share price target for 2031?
NEWGEN's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹36, with an 80% range of ₹7–₹173 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NEWGEN doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NEWGEN reaching ₹964 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for NEWGEN?
A 20.7× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. High return on equity (20.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (25.8%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in NEWGEN?
The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 17% chance of finishing above today's price. High historical volatility (55%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.