NFL
National Fertilizers Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is NFL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) trades at ₹72,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100.
On the numbers, National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100, weighing fairly valued at 16.7× earnings, ROE of 7.6%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
NFL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How NFL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- NFL's market cap of 3,528 Cr ranks in the 60th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NFL's book value of ₹58 ranks in the 37th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NFL's promoter holding of 74.7% ranks in the 90th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NFL's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of -23.0% ranks in the 10th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NFL's 3-year revenue growth of -10.0% ranks in the 10th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NFL's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.40x is lower than 9% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is NFL overvalued? NFL P/E vs peers
NFL trades at 16.7× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.
NFL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of NFL history (8%/yr drift, 36%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL 2027 | ₹47 | ₹74 | ₹118 | +3% |
| NFL 2028 | ₹40 | ₹77 | ₹147 | +7% |
| NFL 2029 | ₹35 | ₹80 | ₹180 | +11% |
| NFL 2030 | ₹32 | ₹82 | ₹211 | +14% |
| NFL 2031 | ₹30 | ₹85 | ₹241 | +18% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NFL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NFL
- NFL's P/E of 16.7x is lower than 69% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Low price-to-book of 1.24×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- NFL's dividend yield of 2.2% ranks in the 89th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹180.
The bear case & risks
- NFL's return on equity of 7.6% ranks in the 38th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NFL's Piotroski F-Score of 3/8 ranks in the 15th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹35.
NFL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years NFL compounded at 8%/year with annualized volatility of 36%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹47-₹118, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NFL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NFL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NFL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NFL price target & forecast page.
NFL Piotroski F-Score: 3/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. NFL scores 3/8, weak on the financial-strength checks.
NFL MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NFL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 35.00% | 2.9× |
| Zerodha | 31.77% | 3.1× |
| Groww | 31.95% | 3.1× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 31.77% | 3.1× |
| Kotak Neo | 40.00% | 2.5× |
| Paytm Money | 32.12% | 3.1× |
| Pocketful | 32.36% | 3.1× |
| Anand Rathi | 31.77% | 3.1× |
| Bajaj Broking | 35.00% | 2.9× |
| Share India | 31.92% | 3.1× |
Compare every broker on the NFL MTF page.
About National Fertilizers Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹3,528 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the NFL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of National Fertilizers Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NFL analysis, FAQs
Is National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) a good buy?
On the numbers, National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100, weighing fairly valued at 16.7× earnings, ROE of 7.6%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NFL overvalued or undervalued?
NFL trades at 16.7× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.
What is the NFL share price target for 2031?
NFL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹85, with an 80% range of ₹30-₹241 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NFL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NFL reaching ₹144 (2×) within 5 years is 26%.
What is the bull case for NFL?
NFL's P/E of 16.7x is lower than 69% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. Low price-to-book of 1.24×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. NFL's dividend yield of 2.2% ranks in the 89th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
What are the risks in NFL?
NFL's return on equity of 7.6% ranks in the 38th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. NFL's Piotroski F-Score of 3/8 ranks in the 15th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.