NFL
National Fertilizers
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
National Fertilizers (NFL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is NFL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
National Fertilizers (NFL) trades at ₹78,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100.
On the numbers, National Fertilizers (NFL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.2× earnings, ROE of 7.6%, a 20% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
NFL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is NFL overvalued? NFL P/E vs its sector
NFL's P/E of 18.2× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 1.99% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.
NFL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NFL history (-26%/yr drift, 39%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL 2027 | ₹34 | ₹56 | ₹91 | -28% |
| NFL 2028 | ₹20 | ₹40 | ₹81 | -49% |
| NFL 2029 | ₹12 | ₹28 | ₹68 | -63% |
| NFL 2030 | ₹7 | ₹20 | ₹55 | -74% |
| NFL 2031 | ₹5 | ₹14 | ₹45 | -82% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NFL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NFL
- A 18.2× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
- Low price-to-book of 1.35×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹68.
The bear case & risks
- Return on equity is a soft 7.6%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 20% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹12.
NFL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years NFL compounded at -26%/year with annualized volatility of 39%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹34–₹91, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NFL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NFL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NFL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NFL price target & forecast page.
NFL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NFL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
NFL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NFL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 35.0% | 2.9× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 32.9% | 3.0× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 32.9% | 3.0× |
Compare every broker on the NFL MTF page.
NFL vs peers,sector comparison
About National Fertilizers: sector, index & market-cap context
National Fertilizers (NFL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹3,846 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the NFL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of National Fertilizers's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NFL analysis, FAQs
Is National Fertilizers (NFL) a good buy?
On the numbers, National Fertilizers (NFL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.2× earnings, ROE of 7.6%, a 20% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NFL overvalued or undervalued?
NFL trades at 18.2× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the NFL share price target for 2031?
NFL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹14, with an 80% range of ₹5–₹45 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NFL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NFL reaching ₹156 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for NFL?
A 18.2× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. Low price-to-book of 1.35×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in NFL?
Return on equity is a soft 7.6%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 20% chance of finishing above today's price.