Case study

NH

Narayana Hrudayalaya

Worth a closer look1y model +21.5%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Narayana Hrudayalaya (NH) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is NH a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Narayana Hrudayalaya (NH) trades at ₹1,905,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 56/100.

On the numbers, Narayana Hrudayalaya (NH) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 56/100, weighing expensive at 45.7× earnings, ROE of 20.9%, a 73% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

NH fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹38,950 Cr
Current price
₹1,905
P/E ratio
45.7×
P/B ratio
8.58×
Book value
₹222
Dividend yield
0.24%
ROCE
15.4%
ROE
20.9%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is NH overvalued? NH P/E vs its sector

NH's P/E of 45.7× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.24% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

NH P/E
45.7×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
NH div yield
0.24%
Peer median yield
1.65%

NH share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NH history (23%/yr drift, 31%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
NH 2027₹1,522₹2,282₹3,373+21%
NH 2028₹1,545₹2,739₹4,778+46%
NH 2029₹1,660₹3,292₹6,491+75%
NH 2030₹1,810₹3,990₹8,650+112%
NH 2031₹2,022₹4,791₹11,482+155%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability NH goes up, or doubles?

73%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
92%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
64%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹3,757 within 5 years

The bull case for NH

  • High return on equity (20.9%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 73% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹2,282 (+21%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹6,491.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 45.7× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • A steep 8.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,660.

NH volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years NH compounded at 23%/year with annualized volatility of 31%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,522₹3,373, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

NH price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
21.5%
80% range₹1,522–₹3,373
P(price ↑)73%
P(price 2×)5%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
75.2%
80% range₹1,660–₹6,491
P(price ↑)85%
P(price 2×)40%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
155.0%
80% range₹2,022–₹11,482
P(price ↑)92%
P(price 2×)64%

NH price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
NH simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds NH hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the NH price target & forecast page.

NH Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NH scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

NH MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NH with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST29.9%3.3×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST29.9%3.3×
DhanCHEAPEST29.9%3.3×

Compare every broker on the NH MTF page.

NH vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
NH (this stock)45.7×0.24%₹38,950 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Narayana Hrudayalaya: sector, index & market-cap context

Narayana Hrudayalaya (NH) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹38,950 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the NH Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Narayana Hrudayalaya's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

NH analysis, FAQs

Is Narayana Hrudayalaya (NH) a good buy?

On the numbers, Narayana Hrudayalaya (NH) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 56/100, weighing expensive at 45.7× earnings, ROE of 20.9%, a 73% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is NH overvalued or undervalued?

NH trades at 45.7× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the NH share price target for 2031?

NH's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹4,791, with an 80% range of ₹2,022₹11,482 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability NH doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of NH reaching ₹3,757 (2×) within 5 years is 64%.

What is the bull case for NH?

High return on equity (20.9%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 73% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹2,282 (+21%).

What are the risks in NH?

A rich 45.7× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 8.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.

More on NH