NIACL
The New India Assurance Co
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
The New India Assurance Co (NIACL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is NIACL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
The New India Assurance Co (NIACL) trades at ₹212,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100.
On the numbers, The New India Assurance Co (NIACL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100, weighing fairly valued at 24.8× earnings, ROE of 4.4%, a 33% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
NIACL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is NIACL overvalued? NIACL P/E vs its sector
NIACL's P/E of 24.8× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.85% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
NIACL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NIACL history (-10%/yr drift, 44%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIACL 2027 | ₹96 | ₹165 | ₹294 | -18% |
| NIACL 2028 | ₹61 | ₹137 | ₹301 | -32% |
| NIACL 2029 | ₹42 | ₹113 | ₹300 | -44% |
| NIACL 2030 | ₹30 | ₹93 | ₹282 | -54% |
| NIACL 2031 | ₹21 | ₹76 | ₹268 | -62% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NIACL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NIACL
- A 24.8× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
- Low price-to-book of 1.01×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹300.
The bear case & risks
- Return on equity is a soft 4.4%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 33% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹42.
NIACL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years NIACL compounded at -10%/year with annualized volatility of 44%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹96–₹294, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NIACL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NIACL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NIACL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NIACL price target & forecast page.
NIACL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NIACL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
NIACL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NIACL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 36.4% | 2.7× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 36.4% | 2.7× |
| GrowwCHEAPEST | 36.4% | 2.7× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 36.4% | 2.7× |
Compare every broker on the NIACL MTF page.
NIACL vs peers,sector comparison
About The New India Assurance Co: sector, index & market-cap context
The New India Assurance Co (NIACL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹34,992 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the NIACL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of The New India Assurance Co's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NIACL analysis, FAQs
Is The New India Assurance Co (NIACL) a good buy?
On the numbers, The New India Assurance Co (NIACL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100, weighing fairly valued at 24.8× earnings, ROE of 4.4%, a 33% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NIACL overvalued or undervalued?
NIACL trades at 24.8× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the NIACL share price target for 2031?
NIACL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹76, with an 80% range of ₹21–₹268 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NIACL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NIACL reaching ₹405 (2×) within 5 years is 5%.
What is the bull case for NIACL?
A 24.8× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. Low price-to-book of 1.01×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in NIACL?
Return on equity is a soft 4.4%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 33% chance of finishing above today's price.