Case study

NIITLTD

NIITLTD

High-risk on the numbers1y model -19.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

NIITLTD (NIITLTD) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is NIITLTD a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

NIITLTD (NIITLTD) trades at ₹104,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 22/100.

On the numbers, NIITLTD (NIITLTD) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 22/100, weighing expensive at 146.0× earnings, ROE of 0.9%, a 36% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

NIITLTD fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1,415 Cr
Current price
₹104
P/E ratio
146.0×
P/B ratio
1.32×
Book value
₹79
Dividend yield
0.97%
ROCE
2.2%
ROE
0.9%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is NIITLTD overvalued? NIITLTD P/E vs its sector

NIITLTD's P/E of 146.0× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.97% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

NIITLTD P/E
146.0×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
NIITLTD div yield
0.97%
Peer median yield
1.65%

NIITLTD share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NIITLTD history (-5%/yr drift, 56%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
NIITLTD 2027₹37₹77₹154-19%
NIITLTD 2028₹23₹63₹170-34%
NIITLTD 2029₹15₹51₹175-46%
NIITLTD 2030₹10₹41₹168-56%
NIITLTD 2031₹7₹33₹157-65%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability NIITLTD goes up, or doubles?

36%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
20%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
8%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹190 within 5 years

The bull case for NIITLTD

  • Low price-to-book of 1.32×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹175.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 146.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • Return on equity is a soft 0.9%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 36% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • High historical volatility (56%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹15.

NIITLTD volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years NIITLTD compounded at -5%/year with annualized volatility of 56%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹37₹154, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

NIITLTD price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
19.3%
80% range₹37–₹154
P(price ↑)36%
P(price 2×)5%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
46.3%
80% range₹15–₹175
P(price ↑)26%
P(price 2×)9%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
65.0%
80% range₹7–₹157
P(price ↑)20%
P(price 2×)8%

NIITLTD price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
NIITLTD simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds NIITLTD hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the NIITLTD price target & forecast page.

NIITLTD Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NIITLTD scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

NIITLTD MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NIITLTD with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
ZerodhaCHEAPEST41.3%2.4×
Dhan64.0%1.6×

Compare every broker on the NIITLTD MTF page.

NIITLTD vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
NIITLTD (this stock)146.0×0.97%₹1,415 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About NIITLTD: sector, index & market-cap context

NIITLTD (NIITLTD) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,415 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the NIITLTD Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of NIITLTD's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

NIITLTD analysis, FAQs

Is NIITLTD (NIITLTD) a good buy?

On the numbers, NIITLTD (NIITLTD) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 22/100, weighing expensive at 146.0× earnings, ROE of 0.9%, a 36% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is NIITLTD overvalued or undervalued?

NIITLTD trades at 146.0× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the NIITLTD share price target for 2031?

NIITLTD's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹33, with an 80% range of ₹7₹157 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability NIITLTD doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of NIITLTD reaching ₹190 (2×) within 5 years is 8%.

What is the bull case for NIITLTD?

Low price-to-book of 1.32×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in NIITLTD?

A rich 146.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 0.9%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 36% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on NIITLTD