Case study

NILKAMAL

Nilkamal

Mixed signals1y model -22.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Nilkamal (NILKAMAL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is NILKAMAL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Nilkamal (NILKAMAL) trades at ₹1,289,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100.

On the numbers, Nilkamal (NILKAMAL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100, weighing fairly valued at 15.1× earnings, ROE of 8.3%, a 15% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

NILKAMAL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1,917 Cr
Current price
₹1,289
P/E ratio
15.1×
P/B ratio
1.22×
Book value
₹1,057
Dividend yield
1.55%
ROCE
10.5%
ROE
8.3%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is NILKAMAL overvalued? NILKAMAL P/E vs its sector

NILKAMAL's P/E of 15.1× sits above the sector peer median of 15.1×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 1.55% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

NILKAMAL P/E
15.1×
Peer median P/E
15.1×
NILKAMAL div yield
1.55%
Peer median yield
1.65%

NILKAMAL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NILKAMAL history (-22%/yr drift, 25%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
NILKAMAL 2027₹728₹1,004₹1,372-22%
NILKAMAL 2028₹489₹781₹1,207-39%
NILKAMAL 2029₹349₹603₹1,038-53%
NILKAMAL 2030₹247₹465₹894-64%
NILKAMAL 2031₹177₹359₹735-72%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability NILKAMAL goes up, or doubles?

15%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
1%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
0%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,582 within 5 years

The bull case for NILKAMAL

  • A 15.1× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • Low price-to-book of 1.22×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Relatively low volatility (25%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,038.

The bear case & risks

  • Return on equity is a soft 8.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 15% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹349.

NILKAMAL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years NILKAMAL compounded at -22%/year with annualized volatility of 25%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹728₹1,372, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

NILKAMAL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
22.3%
80% range₹728–₹1,372
P(price ↑)15%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
53.3%
80% range₹349–₹1,038
P(price ↑)4%
P(price 2×)0%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
72.2%
80% range₹177–₹735
P(price ↑)1%
P(price 2×)0%

NILKAMAL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
NILKAMAL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds NILKAMAL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the NILKAMAL price target & forecast page.

NILKAMAL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NILKAMAL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

NILKAMAL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NILKAMAL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST35.0%2.9×
Dhan50.0%2.0×

Compare every broker on the NILKAMAL MTF page.

Which ace investors hold NILKAMAL?

Held by 1 tracked superstar investor (from public NSE/BSE disclosures):

NILKAMAL vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
NILKAMAL (this stock)15.1×1.55%₹1,917 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Nilkamal: sector, index & market-cap context

Nilkamal (NILKAMAL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,917 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the NILKAMAL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Nilkamal's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

NILKAMAL analysis, FAQs

Is Nilkamal (NILKAMAL) a good buy?

On the numbers, Nilkamal (NILKAMAL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100, weighing fairly valued at 15.1× earnings, ROE of 8.3%, a 15% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is NILKAMAL overvalued or undervalued?

NILKAMAL trades at 15.1× earnings versus a peer median of 15.1×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the NILKAMAL share price target for 2031?

NILKAMAL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹359, with an 80% range of ₹177₹735 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability NILKAMAL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of NILKAMAL reaching ₹2,582 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.

What is the bull case for NILKAMAL?

A 15.1× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. Low price-to-book of 1.22×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. Relatively low volatility (25%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.

What are the risks in NILKAMAL?

Return on equity is a soft 8.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 15% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on NILKAMAL