Case study

NIRLON

Nirlon Limited

Screens attractive1y model +7.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

83Score

Nirlon Limited (NIRLON) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is NIRLON a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Nirlon Limited (NIRLON) trades at ₹620,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 83/100.

On the numbers, Nirlon Limited (NIRLON) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 83/100, weighing fairly valued at 16.2× earnings, ROE of 83.8%, a 66% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

NIRLON fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹5,587 Cr
Current price
₹620
P/E ratio
16.2×
P/B ratio
11.92×
Book value
₹52
Dividend yield
2.42%
ROCE
30.8%
ROE
83.8%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How NIRLON ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is NIRLON overvalued? NIRLON P/E vs peers

NIRLON trades at 16.2× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

NIRLON share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of NIRLON history (11%/yr drift, 20%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
NIRLON 2027₹523₹670₹858+8%
NIRLON 2028₹505₹723₹1,033+16%
NIRLON 2029₹507₹779₹1,199+25%
NIRLON 2030₹512₹841₹1,379+35%
NIRLON 2031₹518₹907₹1,586+46%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability NIRLON goes up, or doubles?

66%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
81%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
24%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,242 within 5 years

The bull case for NIRLON

  • NIRLON's P/E of 16.2x is lower than 71% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • NIRLON's return on equity of 83.8% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • NIRLON's return on capital employed of 30.8% ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • NIRLON's dividend yield of 2.4% ranks in the 90th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 66% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹670 (+8%).
  • Relatively low volatility (20%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,199.

The bear case & risks

  • A steep 11.9× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹507.

NIRLON volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years NIRLON compounded at 11%/year with annualized volatility of 20%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹523-₹858, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

NIRLON price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
7.9%
80% range₹523-₹858
P(price ↑)66%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
25.5%
80% range₹507-₹1,199
P(price ↑)75%
P(price 2×)8%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
46.0%
80% range₹518-₹1,586
P(price ↑)81%
P(price 2×)24%

NIRLON price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
NIRLON simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds NIRLON hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the NIRLON price target & forecast page.

NIRLON Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. NIRLON scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

NIRLON MTF margin & leverage across 4 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NIRLON with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 4 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.00%2.9×
Zerodha50.00%2.0×
Pocketful50.00%2.0×
Share IndiaCHEAPEST26.50%3.8×

Compare every broker on the NIRLON MTF page.

About Nirlon Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Nirlon Limited (NIRLON) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹5,587 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the NIRLON Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Nirlon Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

NIRLON analysis, FAQs

Is Nirlon Limited (NIRLON) a good buy?

On the numbers, Nirlon Limited (NIRLON) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 83/100, weighing fairly valued at 16.2× earnings, ROE of 83.8%, a 66% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is NIRLON overvalued or undervalued?

NIRLON trades at 16.2× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the NIRLON share price target for 2031?

NIRLON's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹907, with an 80% range of ₹518-₹1,586 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability NIRLON doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of NIRLON reaching ₹1,242 (2×) within 5 years is 24%.

What is the bull case for NIRLON?

NIRLON's P/E of 16.2x is lower than 71% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. NIRLON's return on equity of 83.8% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. NIRLON's return on capital employed of 30.8% ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in NIRLON?

A steep 11.9× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.

More on NIRLON