Case study

NLCINDIA

NLC India

Worth a closer look1y model +9.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

NLC India (NLCINDIA) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is NLCINDIA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

NLC India (NLCINDIA) trades at ₹328,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100.

On the numbers, NLC India (NLCINDIA) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100, weighing inexpensive at 12.9× earnings, ROE of 17.5%, a 59% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

NLCINDIA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹45,433 Cr
Current price
₹328
P/E ratio
12.9×
P/B ratio
2.12×
Book value
₹155
Dividend yield
1.10%
ROCE
10.4%
ROE
17.5%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is NLCINDIA overvalued? NLCINDIA P/E vs its sector

NLCINDIA's P/E of 12.9× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 1.10% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

NLCINDIA P/E
12.9×
Peer median P/E
14.7×
NLCINDIA div yield
1.10%
Peer median yield
1.65%

NLCINDIA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NLCINDIA history (16%/yr drift, 39%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
NLCINDIA 2027₹213₹351₹586+9%
NLCINDIA 2028₹188₹384₹782+19%
NLCINDIA 2029₹174₹418₹1,013+30%
NLCINDIA 2030₹169₹453₹1,284+41%
NLCINDIA 2031₹162₹502₹1,550+56%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability NLCINDIA goes up, or doubles?

59%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
69%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
38%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹643 within 5 years

The bull case for NLCINDIA

  • Trades at just 12.9× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • A healthy 17.5% return on equity.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,013.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹174.

NLCINDIA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years NLCINDIA compounded at 16%/year with annualized volatility of 39%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹213₹586, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

NLCINDIA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
9.2%
80% range₹213–₹586
P(price ↑)59%
P(price 2×)7%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
29.9%
80% range₹174–₹1,013
P(price ↑)65%
P(price 2×)27%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
56.0%
80% range₹162–₹1,550
P(price ↑)69%
P(price 2×)38%

NLCINDIA price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
NLCINDIA simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds NLCINDIA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the NLCINDIA price target & forecast page.

NLCINDIA Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NLCINDIA scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

NLCINDIA MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NLCINDIA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST34.3%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST34.3%2.9×
DhanCHEAPEST34.3%2.9×

Compare every broker on the NLCINDIA MTF page.

NLCINDIA vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
NLCINDIA (this stock)12.9×1.10%₹45,433 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About NLC India: sector, index & market-cap context

NLC India (NLCINDIA) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹45,433 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the NLCINDIA Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of NLC India's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

NLCINDIA analysis, FAQs

Is NLC India (NLCINDIA) a good buy?

On the numbers, NLC India (NLCINDIA) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100, weighing inexpensive at 12.9× earnings, ROE of 17.5%, a 59% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is NLCINDIA overvalued or undervalued?

NLCINDIA trades at 12.9× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the NLCINDIA share price target for 2031?

NLCINDIA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹502, with an 80% range of ₹162₹1,550 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability NLCINDIA doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of NLCINDIA reaching ₹643 (2×) within 5 years is 38%.

What is the bull case for NLCINDIA?

Trades at just 12.9× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. A healthy 17.5% return on equity.

What are the risks in NLCINDIA?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on NLCINDIA