NMDC
NMDC
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
NMDC (NMDC) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is NMDC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
NMDC (NMDC) trades at ₹88,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 74/100.
On the numbers, NMDC (NMDC) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 74/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.4× earnings, ROE of 23.4%, a 44% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
NMDC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is NMDC overvalued? NMDC P/E vs its Mining
NMDC's P/E of 10.4× sits below the Mining peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 3.74% dividend yield is above the peer median of 3.01%.
NMDC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NMDC history (0%/yr drift, 33%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMDC 2027 | ₹55 | ₹84 | ₹128 | -5% |
| NMDC 2028 | ₹44 | ₹80 | ₹145 | -9% |
| NMDC 2029 | ₹37 | ₹76 | ₹157 | -14% |
| NMDC 2030 | ₹31 | ₹73 | ₹166 | -18% |
| NMDC 2031 | ₹27 | ₹69 | ₹175 | -22% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NMDC goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NMDC
- Trades at just 10.4× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- High return on equity (23.4%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (27.6%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Pays a 3.7% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹157.
The bear case & risks
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 44% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹37.
NMDC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years NMDC compounded at 0%/year with annualized volatility of 33%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹55–₹128, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NMDC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NMDC price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NMDC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NMDC price target & forecast page.
NMDC Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NMDC scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
NMDC MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NMDC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 30.3% | 3.3× |
| Zerodha | 25.8% | 3.9× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 23.3% | 4.3× |
Compare every broker on the NMDC MTF page.
NMDC vs peers,Mining comparison
About NMDC: sector, index & market-cap context
NMDC (NMDC) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Mining sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹77,526 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the NMDC Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of NMDC's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NMDC analysis, FAQs
Is NMDC (NMDC) a good buy?
On the numbers, NMDC (NMDC) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 74/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.4× earnings, ROE of 23.4%, a 44% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NMDC overvalued or undervalued?
NMDC trades at 10.4× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its Mining peers.
What is the NMDC share price target for 2031?
NMDC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹69, with an 80% range of ₹27–₹175 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NMDC doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NMDC reaching ₹177 (2×) within 5 years is 10%.
What is the bull case for NMDC?
Trades at just 10.4× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. High return on equity (23.4%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (27.6%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in NMDC?
The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 44% chance of finishing above today's price.