NMDC
Nmdc Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Nmdc Limited (NMDC) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is NMDC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Nmdc Limited (NMDC) trades at ₹85,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100.
On the numbers, Nmdc Limited (NMDC) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.0× earnings, ROE of 23.4%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
NMDC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How NMDC ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- NMDC's market cap of 74,660 Cr ranks in the 94th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NMDC's book value of ₹39 ranks in the 27th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NMDC's promoter holding of 60.8% ranks in the 53rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NMDC's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 17.0% ranks in the 52nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NMDC's 3-year revenue growth of 22.0% ranks in the 76th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NMDC's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.19x is lower than 64% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is NMDC overvalued? NMDC P/E vs peers
NMDC trades at 10.0× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.
NMDC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of NMDC history (12%/yr drift, 32%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMDC 2027 | ₹57 | ₹87 | ₹131 | +2% |
| NMDC 2028 | ₹49 | ₹88 | ₹159 | +4% |
| NMDC 2029 | ₹44 | ₹90 | ₹183 | +6% |
| NMDC 2030 | ₹41 | ₹92 | ₹207 | +8% |
| NMDC 2031 | ₹38 | ₹94 | ₹235 | +11% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NMDC goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NMDC
- NMDC's P/E of 10.0x is lower than 86% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NMDC's return on equity of 23.4% ranks in the 88th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NMDC's return on capital employed of 27.6% ranks in the 90th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NMDC's dividend yield of 2.9% ranks in the 94th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹183.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹44.
NMDC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years NMDC compounded at 12%/year with annualized volatility of 32%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹57-₹131, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NMDC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NMDC price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NMDC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NMDC price target & forecast page.
NMDC Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. NMDC scores 6/8, mixed financial health.
NMDC MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NMDC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 26.05% | 3.8× |
| Zerodha | 25.20% | 4.0× |
| Groww | 25.21% | 4.0× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 23.00% | 4.3× |
| Kotak Neo | 25.00% | 4.0× |
| Paytm Money | 23.46% | 4.3× |
| Pocketful | 29.89% | 3.3× |
| Fyers | 30.30% | 3.3× |
| Anand Rathi | 29.53% | 3.4× |
| Bajaj Broking | 24.00% | 4.2× |
| Share India | 29.61% | 3.4× |
Compare every broker on the NMDC MTF page.
About Nmdc Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Nmdc Limited (NMDC) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Mining sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹74,660 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the NMDC Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Nmdc Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NMDC analysis, FAQs
Is Nmdc Limited (NMDC) a good buy?
On the numbers, Nmdc Limited (NMDC) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.0× earnings, ROE of 23.4%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NMDC overvalued or undervalued?
NMDC trades at 10.0× earnings, inexpensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.
What is the NMDC share price target for 2031?
NMDC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹94, with an 80% range of ₹38-₹235 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NMDC doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NMDC reaching ₹170 (2×) within 5 years is 20%.
What is the bull case for NMDC?
NMDC's P/E of 10.0x is lower than 86% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. NMDC's return on equity of 23.4% ranks in the 88th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. NMDC's return on capital employed of 27.6% ranks in the 90th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
What are the risks in NMDC?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.