Case study

NOCIL

Nocil

Tread carefully1y model -31.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Nocil (NOCIL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is NOCIL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100.

On the numbers, Nocil (NOCIL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100, weighing a 17% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

NOCIL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NOCIL history (-30%/yr drift, 38%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
NOCIL 2027₹67₹109₹178-31%
NOCIL 2028₹38₹76₹151-52%
NOCIL 2029₹23₹53₹122-67%
NOCIL 2030₹14₹37₹96-77%
NOCIL 2031₹9₹25₹74-84%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability NOCIL goes up, or doubles?

17%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
1%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
0%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹318 within 5 years

The bull case for NOCIL

  • Nocil is part of the NSE universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹122.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 17% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹23.

NOCIL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years NOCIL compounded at -30%/year with annualized volatility of 38%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹67₹178, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

NOCIL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
31.2%
80% range₹67–₹178
P(price ↑)17%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
66.9%
80% range₹23–₹122
P(price ↑)5%
P(price 2×)0%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
84.1%
80% range₹9–₹74
P(price ↑)1%
P(price 2×)0%

NOCIL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
NOCIL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds NOCIL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the NOCIL price target & forecast page.

NOCIL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NOCIL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.0%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST32.9%3.0×
Groww50.0%2.0×
Dhan40.0%2.5×

Compare every broker on the NOCIL MTF page.

NOCIL vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
NOCIL (this stock)
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Nocil: sector, index & market-cap context

Nocil (NOCIL) is an NSE-listed company.

How the NOCIL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Nocil's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

NOCIL analysis, FAQs

Is Nocil (NOCIL) a good buy?

On the numbers, Nocil (NOCIL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100, weighing a 17% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is NOCIL overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation ratios for NOCIL are tracked live on Downstox.

What is the NOCIL share price target for 2031?

NOCIL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹25, with an 80% range of ₹9₹74 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability NOCIL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of NOCIL reaching ₹318 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.

What is the bull case for NOCIL?

Nocil is part of the NSE universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in NOCIL?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 17% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on NOCIL