Case study

NOCIL

NOCIL LIMITED

Tread carefully1y model +2.5%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

33Score

NOCIL LIMITED (NOCIL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is NOCIL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

NOCIL LIMITED (NOCIL) trades at ₹169,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100.

On the numbers, NOCIL LIMITED (NOCIL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 40.5× earnings, ROE of 2.6%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

NOCIL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹2,817 Cr
Current price
₹169
P/E ratio
40.5×
P/B ratio
1.59×
Book value
₹106
Dividend yield
0.89%
ROCE
3.9%
ROE
2.6%
Piotroski F-Score
4/8

How NOCIL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for NOCIL, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

Is NOCIL overvalued? NOCIL P/E vs peers

NOCIL trades at 40.5× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

NOCIL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of NOCIL history (11%/yr drift, 39%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
NOCIL 2027₹105₹173₹286+2%
NOCIL 2028₹87₹177₹362+5%
NOCIL 2029₹76₹181₹432+8%
NOCIL 2030₹67₹186₹513+10%
NOCIL 2031₹63₹191₹580+13%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability NOCIL goes up, or doubles?

52%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
56%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
26%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹337 within 5 years

The bull case for NOCIL

  • NOCIL LIMITED is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹432.

The bear case & risks

  • NOCIL's P/E of 40.5x is lower than 33% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • NOCIL's return on equity of 2.6% ranks in the 22nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹76.

NOCIL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years NOCIL compounded at 11%/year with annualized volatility of 39%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹105-₹286, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

NOCIL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
2.5%
80% range₹105-₹286
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)4%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
7.6%
80% range₹76-₹432
P(price ↑)54%
P(price 2×)18%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
13.0%
80% range₹63-₹580
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)26%

NOCIL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
NOCIL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds NOCIL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the NOCIL price target & forecast page.

NOCIL Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?

4/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. NOCIL scores 4/8, mixed financial health.

NOCIL MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NOCIL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.00%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST34.54%2.9×
Groww34.67%2.9×
Dhan40.00%2.5×
Kotak Neo34.97%2.9×
Paytm Money34.67%2.9×
Pocketful34.69%2.9×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST34.54%2.9×
Bajaj Broking35.00%2.9×
Share India34.67%2.9×

Compare every broker on the NOCIL MTF page.

About NOCIL LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

NOCIL LIMITED (NOCIL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹2,817 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the NOCIL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of NOCIL LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

NOCIL analysis, FAQs

Is NOCIL LIMITED (NOCIL) a good buy?

On the numbers, NOCIL LIMITED (NOCIL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 40.5× earnings, ROE of 2.6%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is NOCIL overvalued or undervalued?

NOCIL trades at 40.5× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the NOCIL share price target for 2031?

NOCIL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹191, with an 80% range of ₹63-₹580 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability NOCIL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of NOCIL reaching ₹337 (2×) within 5 years is 26%.

What is the bull case for NOCIL?

NOCIL LIMITED is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in NOCIL?

NOCIL's P/E of 40.5x is lower than 33% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. NOCIL's return on equity of 2.6% ranks in the 22nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on NOCIL