Case study

NORTHARC

Northern Arc Capital Ltd.

Worth a closer look1y model +1.8%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

57Score

Northern Arc Capital Ltd. (NORTHARC) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is NORTHARC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Northern Arc Capital Ltd. (NORTHARC) trades at ₹276,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100.

On the numbers, Northern Arc Capital Ltd. (NORTHARC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.2× earnings, ROE of 11.1%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

NORTHARC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹4,466 Cr
Current price
₹276
P/E ratio
10.2×
P/B ratio
1.15×
Book value
₹241
ROCE
9.7%
ROE
11.1%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How NORTHARC ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold promoter holding or debt-to-equity ratio figures for NORTHARC, as of 9 Aug 2026, so those are not ranked here.

Is NORTHARC overvalued? NORTHARC P/E vs peers

NORTHARC trades at 10.2× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

NORTHARC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.8y of NORTHARC history (-9%/yr drift, 42%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
NORTHARC 2027₹165₹281₹480+2%
NORTHARC 2028₹134₹287₹611+4%
NORTHARC 2029₹114₹292₹746+6%
NORTHARC 2030₹102₹297₹870+8%
NORTHARC 2031₹90₹303₹1,015+10%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability NORTHARC goes up, or doubles?

52%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
54%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
26%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹553 within 5 years

The bull case for NORTHARC

  • NORTHARC's P/E of 10.2x is lower than 85% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Low price-to-book of 1.15×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹746.

The bear case & risks

  • NORTHARC's return on equity of 11.1% ranks in the 55th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹114.

NORTHARC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 1.8 years NORTHARC compounded at -9%/year with annualized volatility of 42%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹165-₹480, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

NORTHARC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 1.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.8%
80% range₹165-₹480
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)5%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
5.6%
80% range₹114-₹746
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)19%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
9.6%
80% range₹90-₹1,015
P(price ↑)54%
P(price 2×)26%

NORTHARC price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
NORTHARC simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds NORTHARC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the NORTHARC price target & forecast page.

NORTHARC Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. NORTHARC scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

NORTHARC MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NORTHARC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.00%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST33.17%3.0×
Groww33.34%3.0×
DhanCHEAPEST33.17%3.0×
Kotak Neo33.22%3.0×
Paytm Money33.76%3.0×
Pocketful33.48%3.0×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST33.17%3.0×
Bajaj Broking35.00%2.9×
Share India33.30%3.0×

Compare every broker on the NORTHARC MTF page.

About Northern Arc Capital Ltd.: sector, index & market-cap context

Northern Arc Capital Ltd. (NORTHARC) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹4,466 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the NORTHARC Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Northern Arc Capital Ltd.'s public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

NORTHARC analysis, FAQs

Is Northern Arc Capital Ltd. (NORTHARC) a good buy?

On the numbers, Northern Arc Capital Ltd. (NORTHARC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.2× earnings, ROE of 11.1%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is NORTHARC overvalued or undervalued?

NORTHARC trades at 10.2× earnings, inexpensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the NORTHARC share price target for 2031?

NORTHARC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹303, with an 80% range of ₹90-₹1,015 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability NORTHARC doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of NORTHARC reaching ₹553 (2×) within 5 years is 26%.

What is the bull case for NORTHARC?

NORTHARC's P/E of 10.2x is lower than 85% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. Low price-to-book of 1.15×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in NORTHARC?

NORTHARC's return on equity of 11.1% ranks in the 55th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on NORTHARC