Case study

NORTHARC

NORTHERN ARC CAPITAL LTD

Tread carefully1y model -13.5%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

NORTHERN ARC CAPITAL LTD (NORTHARC) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is NORTHARC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

NORTHERN ARC CAPITAL LTD (NORTHARC) trades at ₹298,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100.

On the numbers, NORTHERN ARC CAPITAL LTD (NORTHARC) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100, weighing inexpensive at 11.8× earnings, ROE of 11.1%, a 36% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

NORTHARC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹4,809 Cr
Current price
₹298
P/E ratio
11.8×
P/B ratio
1.24×
Book value
₹241
ROCE
9.7%
ROE
11.1%
Piotroski F-Score
3/9

Is NORTHARC overvalued? NORTHARC P/E vs its sector

NORTHARC's P/E of 11.8× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers.

NORTHARC P/E
11.8×
Peer median P/E
14.7×
Peer median yield
1.66%

NORTHARC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.7y of NORTHARC history (-5%/yr drift, 43%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
NORTHARC 2027₹147₹255₹439-13%
NORTHARC 2028₹101₹221₹480-25%
NORTHARC 2029₹73₹190₹496-36%
NORTHARC 2030₹54₹165₹495-44%
NORTHARC 2031₹41₹143₹477-52%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability NORTHARC goes up, or doubles?

36%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
22%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
7%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹590 within 5 years

The bull case for NORTHARC

  • Trades at just 11.8× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • Low price-to-book of 1.24×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹496.

The bear case & risks

  • Return on equity is a soft 11.1%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 36% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹73.

NORTHARC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 1.7 years NORTHARC compounded at -5%/year with annualized volatility of 43%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹147₹439, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

NORTHARC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 1.7 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
13.5%
80% range₹147–₹439
P(price ↑)36%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
35.7%
80% range₹73–₹496
P(price ↑)28%
P(price 2×)7%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
51.5%
80% range₹41–₹477
P(price ↑)22%
P(price 2×)7%

NORTHARC price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
NORTHARC simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds NORTHARC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the NORTHARC price target & forecast page.

NORTHARC Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?

3/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NORTHARC scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.

NORTHARC MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NORTHARC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.0%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST33.6%3.0×
DhanCHEAPEST33.6%3.0×

Compare every broker on the NORTHARC MTF page.

NORTHARC vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
NORTHARC (this stock)11.8×₹4,809 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About NORTHERN ARC CAPITAL LTD: sector, index & market-cap context

NORTHERN ARC CAPITAL LTD (NORTHARC) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹4,809 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the NORTHARC Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of NORTHERN ARC CAPITAL LTD's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

NORTHARC analysis, FAQs

Is NORTHERN ARC CAPITAL LTD (NORTHARC) a good buy?

On the numbers, NORTHERN ARC CAPITAL LTD (NORTHARC) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100, weighing inexpensive at 11.8× earnings, ROE of 11.1%, a 36% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is NORTHARC overvalued or undervalued?

NORTHARC trades at 11.8× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the NORTHARC share price target for 2031?

NORTHARC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹143, with an 80% range of ₹41₹477 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability NORTHARC doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of NORTHARC reaching ₹590 (2×) within 5 years is 7%.

What is the bull case for NORTHARC?

Trades at just 11.8× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 1.24×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in NORTHARC?

Return on equity is a soft 11.1%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 36% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on NORTHARC