Case study

NOVARTIND

Novartis India Limited

Tread carefully1y model +2.8%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

33Score

Novartis India Limited (NOVARTIND) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is NOVARTIND a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Novartis India Limited (NOVARTIND) trades at ₹1,610,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100.

On the numbers, Novartis India Limited (NOVARTIND) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 40.6× earnings, ROE of 11.6%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

NOVARTIND fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹3,974 Cr
Current price
₹1,610
P/E ratio
40.6×
P/B ratio
4.86×
Book value
₹331
Dividend yield
1.55%
ROCE
16.2%
ROE
11.6%
Piotroski F-Score
4/8

How NOVARTIND ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for NOVARTIND, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

Is NOVARTIND overvalued? NOVARTIND P/E vs peers

NOVARTIND trades at 40.6× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

NOVARTIND share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of NOVARTIND history (9%/yr drift, 35%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
NOVARTIND 2027₹1,055₹1,654₹2,595+3%
NOVARTIND 2028₹895₹1,700₹3,229+6%
NOVARTIND 2029₹801₹1,747₹3,809+9%
NOVARTIND 2030₹730₹1,795₹4,415+11%
NOVARTIND 2031₹670₹1,845₹5,078+15%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability NOVARTIND goes up, or doubles?

53%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
57%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
24%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹3,220 within 5 years

The bull case for NOVARTIND

  • Novartis India Limited is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹3,809.

The bear case & risks

  • NOVARTIND's P/E of 40.6x is lower than 33% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • NOVARTIND's return on equity of 11.6% ranks in the 58th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹801.

NOVARTIND volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years NOVARTIND compounded at 9%/year with annualized volatility of 35%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,055-₹2,595, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

NOVARTIND price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
2.8%
80% range₹1,055-₹2,595
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
8.5%
80% range₹801-₹3,809
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)16%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
14.6%
80% range₹670-₹5,078
P(price ↑)57%
P(price 2×)24%

NOVARTIND price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
NOVARTIND simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds NOVARTIND hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the NOVARTIND price target & forecast page.

NOVARTIND Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?

4/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. NOVARTIND scores 4/8, mixed financial health.

NOVARTIND MTF margin & leverage across 7 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NOVARTIND with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 7 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.00%2.9×
Zerodha50.00%2.0×
Groww50.00%2.0×
Kotak Neo100.00%1.0×
Paytm Money34.34%2.9×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST34.18%2.9×
Share India34.34%2.9×

Compare every broker on the NOVARTIND MTF page.

About Novartis India Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Novartis India Limited (NOVARTIND) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹3,974 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the NOVARTIND Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Novartis India Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

NOVARTIND analysis, FAQs

Is Novartis India Limited (NOVARTIND) a good buy?

On the numbers, Novartis India Limited (NOVARTIND) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 40.6× earnings, ROE of 11.6%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is NOVARTIND overvalued or undervalued?

NOVARTIND trades at 40.6× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the NOVARTIND share price target for 2031?

NOVARTIND's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,845, with an 80% range of ₹670-₹5,078 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability NOVARTIND doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of NOVARTIND reaching ₹3,220 (2×) within 5 years is 24%.

What is the bull case for NOVARTIND?

Novartis India Limited is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in NOVARTIND?

NOVARTIND's P/E of 40.6x is lower than 33% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. NOVARTIND's return on equity of 11.6% ranks in the 58th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on NOVARTIND