NPST
NPST
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
NPST (NPST) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is NPST a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
NPST (NPST) trades at ₹1,549,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 34/100.
On the numbers, NPST (NPST) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 34/100, weighing expensive at 78.9× earnings, ROE of 15.0%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
NPST fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is NPST overvalued? NPST P/E vs its sector
NPST's P/E of 78.9× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.13% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
NPST share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NPST history (-0%/yr drift, 62%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NPST 2027 | ₹577 | ₹1,281 | ₹2,842 | -19% |
| NPST 2028 | ₹336 | ₹1,061 | ₹3,296 | -32% |
| NPST 2029 | ₹211 | ₹872 | ₹3,354 | -45% |
| NPST 2030 | ₹144 | ₹731 | ₹3,444 | -54% |
| NPST 2031 | ₹98 | ₹593 | ₹3,474 | -62% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NPST goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NPST
- A healthy 15.0% return on equity.
- Strong ROCE (19.7%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹3,354.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 78.9× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price.
- High historical volatility (62%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹211.
NPST volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years NPST compounded at -0%/year with annualized volatility of 62%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹577–₹2,842, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NPST price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NPST price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NPST hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NPST price target & forecast page.
NPST Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NPST scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
NPST MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NPST with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 50.0% | 2.0× |
| Dhan | 64.0% | 1.6× |
Compare every broker on the NPST MTF page.
NPST vs peers,sector comparison
About NPST: sector, index & market-cap context
NPST (NPST) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹3,222 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the NPST Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of NPST's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NPST analysis, FAQs
Is NPST (NPST) a good buy?
On the numbers, NPST (NPST) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 34/100, weighing expensive at 78.9× earnings, ROE of 15.0%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NPST overvalued or undervalued?
NPST trades at 78.9× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the NPST share price target for 2031?
NPST's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹593, with an 80% range of ₹98–₹3,474 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NPST doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NPST reaching ₹3,144 (2×) within 5 years is 11%.
What is the bull case for NPST?
A healthy 15.0% return on equity. Strong ROCE (19.7%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in NPST?
A rich 78.9× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price. High historical volatility (62%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.