Case study

NSLNISP

NMDC STEEL LIMITED

High-risk on the numbers1y model +3.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

25Score

NMDC STEEL LIMITED (NSLNISP) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is NSLNISP a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

NMDC STEEL LIMITED (NSLNISP) trades at ₹44,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 25/100.

On the numbers, NMDC STEEL LIMITED (NSLNISP) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 25/100, weighing expensive at 219.0× earnings, ROE of 0.5%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

NSLNISP fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹12,848 Cr
Current price
₹44
P/E ratio
219.0×
P/B ratio
0.97×
Book value
₹45
ROCE
3.1%
ROE
0.5%
Piotroski F-Score
3/8

How NSLNISP ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is NSLNISP overvalued? NSLNISP P/E vs peers

NSLNISP trades at 219.0× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

NSLNISP share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 3.4y of NSLNISP history (10%/yr drift, 38%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
NSLNISP 2027₹28₹46₹74+4%
NSLNISP 2028₹24₹47₹94+8%
NSLNISP 2029₹21₹49₹113+12%
NSLNISP 2030₹19₹51₹136+16%
NSLNISP 2031₹18₹53₹160+21%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability NSLNISP goes up, or doubles?

54%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
59%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
28%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹88 within 5 years

The bull case for NSLNISP

  • Low price-to-book of 0.97×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹113.

The bear case & risks

  • NSLNISP's P/E of 219.0x is lower than 5% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • NSLNISP's return on equity of 0.5% ranks in the 13th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • NSLNISP's Piotroski F-Score of 3/8 ranks in the 15th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹21.

NSLNISP volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 3.4 years NSLNISP compounded at 10%/year with annualized volatility of 38%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹28-₹74, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

NSLNISP price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 3.4 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
3.9%
80% range₹28-₹74
P(price ↑)54%
P(price 2×)4%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
12.1%
80% range₹21-₹113
P(price ↑)57%
P(price 2×)19%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
21.0%
80% range₹18-₹160
P(price ↑)59%
P(price 2×)28%

NSLNISP price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
NSLNISP simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds NSLNISP hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the NSLNISP price target & forecast page.

NSLNISP Piotroski F-Score: 3/8, how financially strong is it?

3/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. NSLNISP scores 3/8, weak on the financial-strength checks.

NSLNISP MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NSLNISP with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox33.36%3.0×
Zerodha33.35%3.0×
Groww33.49%3.0×
Dhan33.35%3.0×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST33.33%3.0×
Paytm Money33.64%3.0×
Pocketful33.89%3.0×
Anand Rathi33.35%3.0×
Bajaj Broking35.00%2.9×
Share India33.46%3.0×

Compare every broker on the NSLNISP MTF page.

About NMDC STEEL LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

NMDC STEEL LIMITED (NSLNISP) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹12,848 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the NSLNISP Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of NMDC STEEL LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

NSLNISP analysis, FAQs

Is NMDC STEEL LIMITED (NSLNISP) a good buy?

On the numbers, NMDC STEEL LIMITED (NSLNISP) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 25/100, weighing expensive at 219.0× earnings, ROE of 0.5%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is NSLNISP overvalued or undervalued?

NSLNISP trades at 219.0× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the NSLNISP share price target for 2031?

NSLNISP's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹53, with an 80% range of ₹18-₹160 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability NSLNISP doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of NSLNISP reaching ₹88 (2×) within 5 years is 28%.

What is the bull case for NSLNISP?

Low price-to-book of 0.97×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in NSLNISP?

NSLNISP's P/E of 219.0x is lower than 5% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. NSLNISP's return on equity of 0.5% ranks in the 13th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. NSLNISP's Piotroski F-Score of 3/8 ranks in the 15th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

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