NYKAA
Nykaa
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Nykaa (NYKAA) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is NYKAA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Nykaa (NYKAA) trades at ₹304,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100.
On the numbers, Nykaa (NYKAA) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 416.0× earnings, ROE of 15.3%, a 78% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
NYKAA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is NYKAA overvalued? NYKAA P/E vs its Internet
NYKAA's P/E of 416.0× sits above the Internet peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.
NYKAA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NYKAA history (27%/yr drift, 30%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYKAA 2027 | ₹258 | ₹380 | ₹559 | +26% |
| NYKAA 2028 | ₹278 | ₹482 | ₹830 | +59% |
| NYKAA 2029 | ₹310 | ₹609 | ₹1,180 | +101% |
| NYKAA 2030 | ₹351 | ₹760 | ₹1,640 | +151% |
| NYKAA 2031 | ₹399 | ₹956 | ₹2,283 | +216% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NYKAA goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NYKAA
- A healthy 15.3% return on equity.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 78% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹380 (+26%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,180.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 416.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- A steep 60.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹310.
NYKAA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years NYKAA compounded at 27%/year with annualized volatility of 30%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹258–₹559, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NYKAA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NYKAA price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NYKAA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NYKAA price target & forecast page.
NYKAA Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NYKAA scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.
NYKAA MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NYKAA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 29.5% | 3.4× |
| Zerodha | 25.2% | 4.0× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 23.0% | 4.3× |
Compare every broker on the NYKAA MTF page.
NYKAA vs peers,Internet comparison
About Nykaa: sector, index & market-cap context
Nykaa (NYKAA) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Internet sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹87,088 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the NYKAA Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Nykaa's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NYKAA analysis, FAQs
Is Nykaa (NYKAA) a good buy?
On the numbers, Nykaa (NYKAA) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 416.0× earnings, ROE of 15.3%, a 78% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NYKAA overvalued or undervalued?
NYKAA trades at 416.0× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its Internet peers.
What is the NYKAA share price target for 2031?
NYKAA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹956, with an 80% range of ₹399–₹2,283 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NYKAA doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NYKAA reaching ₹605 (2×) within 5 years is 74%.
What is the bull case for NYKAA?
A healthy 15.3% return on equity. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 78% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹380 (+26%).
What are the risks in NYKAA?
A rich 416.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 60.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.