Case study

NYKAA

Nykaa - FSN E-Commerce Ventures Ltd.

Tread carefully1y model +6.6%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

41Score

Nykaa - FSN E-Commerce Ventures Ltd. (NYKAA) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is NYKAA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Nykaa - FSN E-Commerce Ventures Ltd. (NYKAA) trades at ₹332,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100.

On the numbers, Nykaa - FSN E-Commerce Ventures Ltd. (NYKAA) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 357.0× earnings, ROE of 15.3%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

NYKAA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹95,081 Cr
Current price
₹332
P/E ratio
357.0×
P/B ratio
66.14×
Book value
₹5
ROCE
17.2%
ROE
15.3%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How NYKAA ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is NYKAA overvalued? NYKAA P/E vs peers

NYKAA trades at 357.0× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

NYKAA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 4.7y of NYKAA history (-2%/yr drift, 29%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
NYKAA 2027₹242₹354₹517+7%
NYKAA 2028₹222₹378₹642+14%
NYKAA 2029₹211₹403₹767+21%
NYKAA 2030₹200₹429₹922+29%
NYKAA 2031₹196₹458₹1,070+38%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability NYKAA goes up, or doubles?

58%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
70%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
28%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹664 within 5 years

The bull case for NYKAA

  • NYKAA's return on equity of 15.3% ranks in the 72nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹767.

The bear case & risks

  • NYKAA's P/E of 357.0x is lower than 3% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A steep 66.1× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹211.

NYKAA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 4.7 years NYKAA compounded at -2%/year with annualized volatility of 29%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹242-₹517, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

NYKAA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 4.7 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
6.6%
80% range₹242-₹517
P(price ↑)58%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
21.3%
80% range₹211-₹767
P(price ↑)65%
P(price 2×)16%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
37.9%
80% range₹196-₹1,070
P(price ↑)70%
P(price 2×)28%

NYKAA price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
NYKAA simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds NYKAA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the NYKAA price target & forecast page.

NYKAA Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. NYKAA scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

NYKAA MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NYKAA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox25.52%3.9×
Zerodha24.70%4.0×
Groww24.74%4.0×
Dhan23.00%4.3×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST21.98%4.5×
Paytm Money22.08%4.5×
Pocketful29.24%3.4×
Fyers30.30%3.3×
Anand Rathi28.99%3.4×
Bajaj Broking23.00%4.3×
Share India29.06%3.4×

Compare every broker on the NYKAA MTF page.

About Nykaa - FSN E-Commerce Ventures Ltd.: sector, index & market-cap context

Nykaa - FSN E-Commerce Ventures Ltd. (NYKAA) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Internet sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹95,081 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the NYKAA Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Nykaa - FSN E-Commerce Ventures Ltd.'s public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

NYKAA analysis, FAQs

Is Nykaa - FSN E-Commerce Ventures Ltd. (NYKAA) a good buy?

On the numbers, Nykaa - FSN E-Commerce Ventures Ltd. (NYKAA) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 357.0× earnings, ROE of 15.3%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is NYKAA overvalued or undervalued?

NYKAA trades at 357.0× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the NYKAA share price target for 2031?

NYKAA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹458, with an 80% range of ₹196-₹1,070 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability NYKAA doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of NYKAA reaching ₹664 (2×) within 5 years is 28%.

What is the bull case for NYKAA?

NYKAA's return on equity of 15.3% ranks in the 72nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in NYKAA?

NYKAA's P/E of 357.0x is lower than 3% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 66.1× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.

More on NYKAA