OIL
Oil India
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Oil India (OIL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is OIL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Oil India (OIL) trades at ₹423,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100.
On the numbers, Oil India (OIL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.4× earnings, ROE of 12.3%, a 38% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
OIL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is OIL overvalued? OIL P/E vs its sector
OIL's P/E of 10.4× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 2.72% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.
OIL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of OIL history (-6%/yr drift, 38%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OIL 2027 | ₹226 | ₹371 | ₹606 | -11% |
| OIL 2028 | ₹162 | ₹326 | ₹644 | -22% |
| OIL 2029 | ₹122 | ₹285 | ₹669 | -32% |
| OIL 2030 | ₹94 | ₹253 | ₹671 | -40% |
| OIL 2031 | ₹74 | ₹223 | ₹659 | -47% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability OIL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for OIL
- Trades at just 10.4× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- Low price-to-book of 1.18×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- A healthy 12.3% return on equity.
- Pays a 2.7% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹669.
The bear case & risks
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 38% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹122.
OIL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years OIL compounded at -6%/year with annualized volatility of 38%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹226–₹606, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
OIL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
OIL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds OIL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the OIL price target & forecast page.
OIL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. OIL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
OIL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy OIL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 32.1% | 3.1× |
| Zerodha | 27.4% | 3.6× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 25.1% | 4.0× |
Compare every broker on the OIL MTF page.
OIL vs peers,sector comparison
About Oil India: sector, index & market-cap context
Oil India (OIL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹68,749 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the OIL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Oil India's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
OIL analysis, FAQs
Is Oil India (OIL) a good buy?
On the numbers, Oil India (OIL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.4× earnings, ROE of 12.3%, a 38% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is OIL overvalued or undervalued?
OIL trades at 10.4× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.
What is the OIL share price target for 2031?
OIL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹223, with an 80% range of ₹74–₹659 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability OIL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of OIL reaching ₹836 (2×) within 5 years is 6%.
What is the bull case for OIL?
Trades at just 10.4× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 1.18×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. A healthy 12.3% return on equity.
What are the risks in OIL?
The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 38% chance of finishing above today's price.