PARADEEP
Paradeep Phosphates
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Paradeep Phosphates (PARADEEP) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is PARADEEP a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Paradeep Phosphates (PARADEEP) trades at ₹139,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 75/100.
On the numbers, Paradeep Phosphates (PARADEEP) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 75/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.1× earnings, ROE of 18.9%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
PARADEEP fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is PARADEEP overvalued? PARADEEP P/E vs its sector
PARADEEP's P/E of 14.1× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.72% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
PARADEEP share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of PARADEEP history (25%/yr drift, 48%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARADEEP 2027 | ₹85 | ₹156 | ₹288 | +14% |
| PARADEEP 2028 | ₹76 | ₹176 | ₹416 | +30% |
| PARADEEP 2029 | ₹70 | ₹204 | ₹591 | +50% |
| PARADEEP 2030 | ₹69 | ₹232 | ₹787 | +70% |
| PARADEEP 2031 | ₹69 | ₹262 | ₹1,052 | +92% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability PARADEEP goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for PARADEEP
- Trades at just 14.1× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- High return on equity (18.9%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 61% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹156 (+14%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹591.
The bear case & risks
- High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹70.
PARADEEP volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years PARADEEP compounded at 25%/year with annualized volatility of 48%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹85–₹288, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
PARADEEP price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
PARADEEP price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds PARADEEP hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the PARADEEP price target & forecast page.
PARADEEP Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. PARADEEP scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
PARADEEP MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy PARADEEP with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 36.0% | 2.8× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 36.0% | 2.8× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 36.0% | 2.8× |
Compare every broker on the PARADEEP MTF page.
PARADEEP vs peers,sector comparison
About Paradeep Phosphates: sector, index & market-cap context
Paradeep Phosphates (PARADEEP) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹14,445 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.
How the PARADEEP Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Paradeep Phosphates's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
PARADEEP analysis, FAQs
Is Paradeep Phosphates (PARADEEP) a good buy?
On the numbers, Paradeep Phosphates (PARADEEP) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 75/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.1× earnings, ROE of 18.9%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is PARADEEP overvalued or undervalued?
PARADEEP trades at 14.1× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.
What is the PARADEEP share price target for 2031?
PARADEEP's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹262, with an 80% range of ₹69–₹1,052 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability PARADEEP doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of PARADEEP reaching ₹272 (2×) within 5 years is 49%.
What is the bull case for PARADEEP?
Trades at just 14.1× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. High return on equity (18.9%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 61% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹156 (+14%).
What are the risks in PARADEEP?
High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.