PARAGMILK
Parag Milk Foods Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Parag Milk Foods Limited (PARAGMILK) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is PARAGMILK a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Parag Milk Foods Limited (PARAGMILK) trades at ₹223,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100.
On the numbers, Parag Milk Foods Limited (PARAGMILK) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing fairly valued at 20.8× earnings, ROE of 12.3%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
PARAGMILK fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How PARAGMILK ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- PARAGMILK's market cap of 2,804 Cr ranks in the 56th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- PARAGMILK's book value of ₹101 ranks in the 53rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- PARAGMILK's promoter holding of 40.5% ranks in the 17th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- PARAGMILK's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 38.0% ranks in the 76th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- PARAGMILK's 3-year revenue growth of 10.0% ranks in the 50th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- PARAGMILK's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.48x is lower than 36% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is PARAGMILK overvalued? PARAGMILK P/E vs peers
PARAGMILK trades at 20.8× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.
PARAGMILK share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of PARAGMILK history (-4%/yr drift, 46%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARAGMILK 2027 | ₹124 | ₹222 | ₹395 | -1% |
| PARAGMILK 2028 | ₹96 | ₹221 | ₹505 | -1% |
| PARAGMILK 2029 | ₹81 | ₹219 | ₹594 | -2% |
| PARAGMILK 2030 | ₹68 | ₹218 | ₹700 | -2% |
| PARAGMILK 2031 | ₹58 | ₹217 | ₹807 | -3% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability PARAGMILK goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for PARAGMILK
- PARAGMILK's P/E of 20.8x is lower than 61% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- PARAGMILK's return on equity of 12.3% ranks in the 60th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹594.
The bear case & risks
- High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹81.
PARAGMILK volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years PARAGMILK compounded at -4%/year with annualized volatility of 46%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹124-₹395, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
PARAGMILK price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
PARAGMILK price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds PARAGMILK hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the PARAGMILK price target & forecast page.
PARAGMILK Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. PARAGMILK scores 6/8, mixed financial health.
PARAGMILK MTF margin & leverage across 9 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy PARAGMILK with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 9 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 35.98% | 2.8× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 35.93% | 2.8× |
| Groww | 36.04% | 2.8× |
| Dhan | 35.93% | 2.8× |
| Kotak Neo | 35.97% | 2.8× |
| Paytm Money | 37.91% | 2.6× |
| Pocketful | 36.32% | 2.8× |
| Anand RathiCHEAPEST | 35.93% | 2.8× |
| Share India | 36.01% | 2.8× |
Compare every broker on the PARAGMILK MTF page.
About Parag Milk Foods Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Parag Milk Foods Limited (PARAGMILK) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹2,804 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the PARAGMILK Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Parag Milk Foods Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
PARAGMILK analysis, FAQs
Is Parag Milk Foods Limited (PARAGMILK) a good buy?
On the numbers, Parag Milk Foods Limited (PARAGMILK) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing fairly valued at 20.8× earnings, ROE of 12.3%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is PARAGMILK overvalued or undervalued?
PARAGMILK trades at 20.8× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.
What is the PARAGMILK share price target for 2031?
PARAGMILK's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹217, with an 80% range of ₹58-₹807 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability PARAGMILK doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of PARAGMILK reaching ₹446 (2×) within 5 years is 24%.
What is the bull case for PARAGMILK?
PARAGMILK's P/E of 20.8x is lower than 61% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. PARAGMILK's return on equity of 12.3% ranks in the 60th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
What are the risks in PARAGMILK?
High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.