Case study

PARAGMILK

Parag Milk Foods

Mixed signals1y model +1.1%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Parag Milk Foods (PARAGMILK) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is PARAGMILK a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100.

On the numbers, Parag Milk Foods (PARAGMILK) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100, weighing a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

PARAGMILK share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of PARAGMILK history (12%/yr drift, 46%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
PARAGMILK 2027₹128₹232₹420+1%
PARAGMILK 2028₹103₹236₹539+3%
PARAGMILK 2029₹86₹241₹665+5%
PARAGMILK 2030₹73₹241₹781+5%
PARAGMILK 2031₹64₹246₹902+7%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability PARAGMILK goes up, or doubles?

51%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
53%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
27%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹459 within 5 years

The bull case for PARAGMILK

  • Parag Milk Foods is part of the NSE universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹665.

The bear case & risks

  • High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹86.

PARAGMILK volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years PARAGMILK compounded at 12%/year with annualized volatility of 46%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹128₹420, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

PARAGMILK price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.1%
80% range₹128–₹420
P(price ↑)51%
P(price 2×)7%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
5.1%
80% range₹86–₹665
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)21%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
7.2%
80% range₹64–₹902
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)27%

PARAGMILK price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
PARAGMILK simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds PARAGMILK hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the PARAGMILK price target & forecast page.

PARAGMILK MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy PARAGMILK with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST36.9%2.7×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST36.9%2.7×
DhanCHEAPEST36.9%2.7×

Compare every broker on the PARAGMILK MTF page.

PARAGMILK vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
PARAGMILK (this stock)
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Parag Milk Foods: sector, index & market-cap context

Parag Milk Foods (PARAGMILK) is an NSE-listed company.

How the PARAGMILK Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Parag Milk Foods's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

PARAGMILK analysis, FAQs

Is Parag Milk Foods (PARAGMILK) a good buy?

On the numbers, Parag Milk Foods (PARAGMILK) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100, weighing a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is PARAGMILK overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation ratios for PARAGMILK are tracked live on Downstox.

What is the PARAGMILK share price target for 2031?

PARAGMILK's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹246, with an 80% range of ₹64₹902 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability PARAGMILK doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of PARAGMILK reaching ₹459 (2×) within 5 years is 27%.

What is the bull case for PARAGMILK?

Parag Milk Foods is part of the NSE universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in PARAGMILK?

High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on PARAGMILK