PAYTM
Paytm
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Paytm (PAYTM) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is PAYTM a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Paytm (PAYTM) trades at ₹1,089,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100.
On the numbers, Paytm (PAYTM) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 95.6× earnings, ROE of 4.7%, a 81% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
PAYTM fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is PAYTM overvalued? PAYTM P/E vs its Fintech
PAYTM's P/E of 95.6× sits above the Fintech peer median of 17.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.
PAYTM share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of PAYTM history (50%/yr drift, 45%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYTM 2027 | ₹913 | ₹1,620 | ₹2,831 | +49% |
| PAYTM 2028 | ₹1,059 | ₹2,403 | ₹5,361 | +120% |
| PAYTM 2029 | ₹1,336 | ₹3,559 | ₹9,541 | +226% |
| PAYTM 2030 | ₹1,689 | ₹5,343 | ₹16,884 | +390% |
| PAYTM 2031 | ₹2,246 | ₹7,834 | ₹28,798 | +619% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability PAYTM goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for PAYTM
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 81% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,620 (+49%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹9,541.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 95.6× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- Return on equity is a soft 4.7%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,336.
PAYTM volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years PAYTM compounded at 50%/year with annualized volatility of 45%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹913–₹2,831, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
PAYTM price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
PAYTM price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds PAYTM hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the PAYTM price target & forecast page.
PAYTM Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. PAYTM scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.
PAYTM MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy PAYTM with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 35.1% | 2.9× |
| Zerodha | 29.9% | 3.3× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 28.1% | 3.6× |
Compare every broker on the PAYTM MTF page.
PAYTM vs peers,Fintech comparison
About Paytm: sector, index & market-cap context
Paytm (PAYTM) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Fintech sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹69,730 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the PAYTM Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Paytm's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
PAYTM analysis, FAQs
Is Paytm (PAYTM) a good buy?
On the numbers, Paytm (PAYTM) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 95.6× earnings, ROE of 4.7%, a 81% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is PAYTM overvalued or undervalued?
PAYTM trades at 95.6× earnings versus a peer median of 17.9×, so it screens richer than its Fintech peers.
What is the PAYTM share price target for 2031?
PAYTM's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹7,834, with an 80% range of ₹2,246–₹28,798 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability PAYTM doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of PAYTM reaching ₹2,180 (2×) within 5 years is 90%.
What is the bull case for PAYTM?
A 10,000-path probability model puts a 81% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,620 (+49%).
What are the risks in PAYTM?
A rich 95.6× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 4.7%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.