Case study

PAYTM

Paytm - One97 Communications Ltd

Tread carefully1y model +2.0%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

33Score

Paytm - One97 Communications Ltd (PAYTM) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is PAYTM a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Paytm - One97 Communications Ltd (PAYTM) trades at ₹1,442,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100.

On the numbers, Paytm - One97 Communications Ltd (PAYTM) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 114.0× earnings, ROE of 4.7%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

PAYTM fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹92,426 Cr
Current price
₹1,442
P/E ratio
114.0×
P/B ratio
5.77×
Book value
₹250
ROCE
5.0%
ROE
4.7%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How PAYTM ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold a promoter holding figure for PAYTM, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

Is PAYTM overvalued? PAYTM P/E vs peers

PAYTM trades at 114.0× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

PAYTM share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 4.6y of PAYTM history (-2%/yr drift, 44%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
PAYTM 2027₹842₹1,470₹2,568+2%
PAYTM 2028₹691₹1,500₹3,255+4%
PAYTM 2029₹579₹1,530₹4,039+6%
PAYTM 2030₹506₹1,560₹4,809+8%
PAYTM 2031₹453₹1,591₹5,590+10%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability PAYTM goes up, or doubles?

52%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
54%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
27%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,883 within 5 years

The bull case for PAYTM

  • Paytm - One97 Communications Ltd is part of the nifty100 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹4,039.

The bear case & risks

  • PAYTM's P/E of 114.0x is lower than 9% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • PAYTM's return on equity of 4.7% ranks in the 28th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹579.

PAYTM volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 4.6 years PAYTM compounded at -2%/year with annualized volatility of 44%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹842-₹2,568, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

PAYTM price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 4.6 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
2.0%
80% range₹842-₹2,568
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)6%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
6.1%
80% range₹579-₹4,039
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)20%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
10.4%
80% range₹453-₹5,590
P(price ↑)54%
P(price 2×)27%

PAYTM price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
PAYTM simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds PAYTM hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the PAYTM price target & forecast page.

PAYTM Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. PAYTM scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

PAYTM MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy PAYTM with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox31.13%3.2×
Zerodha29.50%3.4×
Groww29.56%3.4×
DhanCHEAPEST27.58%3.6×
Kotak Neo30.03%3.3×
Pocketful34.93%2.9×
Fyers34.48%2.9×
Anand Rathi34.58%2.9×
Bajaj Broking40.00%2.5×
Share India34.73%2.9×

Compare every broker on the PAYTM MTF page.

About Paytm - One97 Communications Ltd: sector, index & market-cap context

Paytm - One97 Communications Ltd (PAYTM) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Fintech sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹92,426 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the PAYTM Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Paytm - One97 Communications Ltd's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

PAYTM analysis, FAQs

Is Paytm - One97 Communications Ltd (PAYTM) a good buy?

On the numbers, Paytm - One97 Communications Ltd (PAYTM) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 114.0× earnings, ROE of 4.7%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is PAYTM overvalued or undervalued?

PAYTM trades at 114.0× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the PAYTM share price target for 2031?

PAYTM's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,591, with an 80% range of ₹453-₹5,590 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability PAYTM doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of PAYTM reaching ₹2,883 (2×) within 5 years is 27%.

What is the bull case for PAYTM?

Paytm - One97 Communications Ltd is part of the nifty100 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in PAYTM?

PAYTM's P/E of 114.0x is lower than 9% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. PAYTM's return on equity of 4.7% ranks in the 28th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on PAYTM