Case study

PHOENIXLTD

The Phoenix Mills

Tread carefully1y model -4.1%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

The Phoenix Mills (PHOENIXLTD) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is PHOENIXLTD a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

The Phoenix Mills (PHOENIXLTD) trades at ₹1,871,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100.

On the numbers, The Phoenix Mills (PHOENIXLTD) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 53.9× earnings, ROE of 11.6%, a 45% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

PHOENIXLTD fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹66,932 Cr
Current price
₹1,871
P/E ratio
53.9×
P/B ratio
6.09×
Book value
₹307
Dividend yield
0.13%
ROCE
12.8%
ROE
11.6%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is PHOENIXLTD overvalued? PHOENIXLTD P/E vs its sector

PHOENIXLTD's P/E of 53.9× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.13% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

PHOENIXLTD P/E
53.9×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
PHOENIXLTD div yield
0.13%
Peer median yield
1.65%

PHOENIXLTD share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of PHOENIXLTD history (2%/yr drift, 36%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
PHOENIXLTD 2027₹1,148₹1,804₹2,829-4%
PHOENIXLTD 2028₹911₹1,741₹3,298-7%
PHOENIXLTD 2029₹753₹1,662₹3,708-12%
PHOENIXLTD 2030₹640₹1,576₹3,991-16%
PHOENIXLTD 2031₹549₹1,526₹4,166-19%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability PHOENIXLTD goes up, or doubles?

45%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
40%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
13%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹3,762 within 5 years

The bull case for PHOENIXLTD

  • The Phoenix Mills is part of the nifty100 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹3,708.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 53.9× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • Return on equity is a soft 11.6%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹753.

PHOENIXLTD volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years PHOENIXLTD compounded at 2%/year with annualized volatility of 36%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,148₹2,829, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

PHOENIXLTD price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
4.1%
80% range₹1,148–₹2,829
P(price ↑)45%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
11.7%
80% range₹753–₹3,708
P(price ↑)42%
P(price 2×)10%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
18.9%
80% range₹549–₹4,166
P(price ↑)40%
P(price 2×)13%

PHOENIXLTD price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
PHOENIXLTD simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds PHOENIXLTD hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the PHOENIXLTD price target & forecast page.

PHOENIXLTD Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. PHOENIXLTD scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

PHOENIXLTD MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy PHOENIXLTD with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox30.3%3.3×
Zerodha25.9%3.9×
DhanCHEAPEST24.0%4.2×

Compare every broker on the PHOENIXLTD MTF page.

PHOENIXLTD vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
PHOENIXLTD (this stock)53.9×0.13%₹66,932 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About The Phoenix Mills: sector, index & market-cap context

The Phoenix Mills (PHOENIXLTD) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹66,932 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the PHOENIXLTD Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of The Phoenix Mills's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

PHOENIXLTD analysis, FAQs

Is The Phoenix Mills (PHOENIXLTD) a good buy?

On the numbers, The Phoenix Mills (PHOENIXLTD) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 53.9× earnings, ROE of 11.6%, a 45% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is PHOENIXLTD overvalued or undervalued?

PHOENIXLTD trades at 53.9× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the PHOENIXLTD share price target for 2031?

PHOENIXLTD's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,526, with an 80% range of ₹549₹4,166 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability PHOENIXLTD doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of PHOENIXLTD reaching ₹3,762 (2×) within 5 years is 13%.

What is the bull case for PHOENIXLTD?

The Phoenix Mills is part of the nifty100 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in PHOENIXLTD?

A rich 53.9× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 11.6%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.

More on PHOENIXLTD