RADICO
Radico Khaitan
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Radico Khaitan (RADICO) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is RADICO a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Radico Khaitan (RADICO) trades at ₹3,779,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100.
On the numbers, Radico Khaitan (RADICO) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing expensive at 82.0× earnings, ROE of 20.3%, a 82% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
RADICO fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is RADICO overvalued? RADICO P/E vs its sector
RADICO's P/E of 82.0× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.24% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
RADICO share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of RADICO history (37%/yr drift, 34%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RADICO 2027 | ₹3,361 | ₹5,106 | ₹7,905 | +35% |
| RADICO 2028 | ₹3,795 | ₹7,009 | ₹12,846 | +86% |
| RADICO 2029 | ₹4,529 | ₹9,541 | ₹20,219 | +153% |
| RADICO 2030 | ₹5,469 | ₹12,898 | ₹30,780 | +242% |
| RADICO 2031 | ₹6,818 | ₹17,852 | ₹46,695 | +374% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability RADICO goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for RADICO
- High return on equity (20.3%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (24.2%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 82% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹5,106 (+35%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹20,219.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 82.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- A steep 15.2× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹4,529.
RADICO volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years RADICO compounded at 37%/year with annualized volatility of 34%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹3,361–₹7,905, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
RADICO price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
RADICO price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds RADICO hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the RADICO price target & forecast page.
RADICO Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. RADICO scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
RADICO MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy RADICO with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 31.3% | 3.2× |
| Zerodha | 26.7% | 3.7× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 25.0% | 4.0× |
Compare every broker on the RADICO MTF page.
Which ace investors hold RADICO?
Held by 1 tracked superstar investor (from public NSE/BSE disclosures):
RADICO vs peers,sector comparison
About Radico Khaitan: sector, index & market-cap context
Radico Khaitan (RADICO) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹50,609 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the RADICO Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Radico Khaitan's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
RADICO analysis, FAQs
Is Radico Khaitan (RADICO) a good buy?
On the numbers, Radico Khaitan (RADICO) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing expensive at 82.0× earnings, ROE of 20.3%, a 82% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is RADICO overvalued or undervalued?
RADICO trades at 82.0× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the RADICO share price target for 2031?
RADICO's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹17,852, with an 80% range of ₹6,818–₹46,695 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability RADICO doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of RADICO reaching ₹7,538 (2×) within 5 years is 87%.
What is the bull case for RADICO?
High return on equity (20.3%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (24.2%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 82% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹5,106 (+35%).
What are the risks in RADICO?
A rich 82.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 15.2× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.