Case study

REFEX

REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED

Worth a closer look1y model +0.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

64Score

REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED (REFEX) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is REFEX a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED (REFEX) trades at ₹299,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 64/100.

On the numbers, REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED (REFEX) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 64/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.4× earnings, ROE of 17.8%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

REFEX fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹4,096 Cr
Current price
₹299
P/E ratio
14.4×
P/B ratio
2.72×
Book value
₹110
Dividend yield
0.50%
ROCE
22.7%
ROE
17.8%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How REFEX ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is REFEX overvalued? REFEX P/E vs peers

REFEX trades at 14.4× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

REFEX share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of REFEX history (47%/yr drift, 53%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
REFEX 2027₹148₹294₹583+0%
REFEX 2028₹114₹295₹764+1%
REFEX 2029₹90₹296₹975+1%
REFEX 2030₹76₹297₹1,169+2%
REFEX 2031₹62₹298₹1,430+2%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability REFEX goes up, or doubles?

50%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
51%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
29%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹586 within 5 years

The bull case for REFEX

  • REFEX's P/E of 14.1x is lower than 76% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • REFEX's return on equity of 17.8% ranks in the 79th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • REFEX's return on capital employed of 22.7% ranks in the 85th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹975.

The bear case & risks

  • High historical volatility (53%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹90.

REFEX volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years REFEX compounded at 47%/year with annualized volatility of 53%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹148-₹583, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

REFEX price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
0.4%
80% range₹148-₹583
P(price ↑)50%
P(price 2×)10%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
1.1%
80% range₹90-₹975
P(price ↑)50%
P(price 2×)23%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
1.9%
80% range₹62-₹1,430
P(price ↑)51%
P(price 2×)29%

REFEX price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
REFEX simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds REFEX hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the REFEX price target & forecast page.

REFEX Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. REFEX scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

REFEX MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy REFEX with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox39.29%2.5×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST39.25%2.5×
Groww39.51%2.5×
DhanCHEAPEST39.25%2.5×
Kotak Neo100.00%1.0×
Paytm Money42.42%2.4×
Pocketful39.71%2.5×
Fyers40.00%2.5×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST39.25%2.5×
Share India39.45%2.5×

Compare every broker on the REFEX MTF page.

About REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED (REFEX) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹4,096 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the REFEX Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

REFEX analysis, FAQs

Is REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED (REFEX) a good buy?

On the numbers, REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED (REFEX) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 64/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.4× earnings, ROE of 17.8%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is REFEX overvalued or undervalued?

REFEX trades at 14.4× earnings, inexpensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the REFEX share price target for 2031?

REFEX's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹298, with an 80% range of ₹62-₹1,430 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability REFEX doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of REFEX reaching ₹586 (2×) within 5 years is 29%.

What is the bull case for REFEX?

REFEX's P/E of 14.1x is lower than 76% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. REFEX's return on equity of 17.8% ranks in the 79th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. REFEX's return on capital employed of 22.7% ranks in the 85th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in REFEX?

High historical volatility (53%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on REFEX