REFEX
REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED (REFEX) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is REFEX a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100.
On the numbers, REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED (REFEX) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing a 65% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
REFEX share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of REFEX history (38%/yr drift, 57%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REFEX 2027 | ₹200 | ₹417 | ₹876 | +24% |
| REFEX 2028 | ₹181 | ₹513 | ₹1,460 | +52% |
| REFEX 2029 | ₹181 | ₹641 | ₹2,278 | +90% |
| REFEX 2030 | ₹179 | ₹797 | ₹3,412 | +137% |
| REFEX 2031 | ₹191 | ₹985 | ₹4,923 | +192% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability REFEX goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for REFEX
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 65% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹417 (+24%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,278.
The bear case & risks
- High historical volatility (57%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹181.
REFEX volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years REFEX compounded at 38%/year with annualized volatility of 57%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹200–₹876, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
REFEX price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
REFEX price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds REFEX hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the REFEX price target & forecast page.
REFEX MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy REFEX with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 40.3% | 2.5× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 40.3% | 2.5× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 40.3% | 2.5× |
Compare every broker on the REFEX MTF page.
REFEX vs peers,sector comparison
About REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context
REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED (REFEX) is an NSE-listed company.
How the REFEX Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
REFEX analysis, FAQs
Is REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED (REFEX) a good buy?
On the numbers, REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED (REFEX) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing a 65% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is REFEX overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation ratios for REFEX are tracked live on Downstox.
What is the REFEX share price target for 2031?
REFEX's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹985, with an 80% range of ₹191–₹4,923 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability REFEX doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of REFEX reaching ₹674 (2×) within 5 years is 62%.
What is the bull case for REFEX?
A 10,000-path probability model puts a 65% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹417 (+24%).
What are the risks in REFEX?
High historical volatility (57%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.