REFEX
REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED (REFEX) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is REFEX a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED (REFEX) trades at ₹299,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 64/100.
On the numbers, REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED (REFEX) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 64/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.4× earnings, ROE of 17.8%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
REFEX fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How REFEX ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- REFEX's market cap of 4,019 Cr ranks in the 62nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- REFEX's book value of ₹110 ranks in the 55th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- REFEX's promoter holding of 56.6% ranks in the 45th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- REFEX's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 28.0% ranks in the 67th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- REFEX's 3-year revenue growth of 12.0% ranks in the 55th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- REFEX's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.15x is lower than 69% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is REFEX overvalued? REFEX P/E vs peers
REFEX trades at 14.4× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.
REFEX share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of REFEX history (47%/yr drift, 53%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REFEX 2027 | ₹148 | ₹294 | ₹583 | +0% |
| REFEX 2028 | ₹114 | ₹295 | ₹764 | +1% |
| REFEX 2029 | ₹90 | ₹296 | ₹975 | +1% |
| REFEX 2030 | ₹76 | ₹297 | ₹1,169 | +2% |
| REFEX 2031 | ₹62 | ₹298 | ₹1,430 | +2% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability REFEX goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for REFEX
- REFEX's P/E of 14.1x is lower than 76% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- REFEX's return on equity of 17.8% ranks in the 79th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- REFEX's return on capital employed of 22.7% ranks in the 85th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹975.
The bear case & risks
- High historical volatility (53%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹90.
REFEX volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years REFEX compounded at 47%/year with annualized volatility of 53%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹148-₹583, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
REFEX price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
REFEX price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds REFEX hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the REFEX price target & forecast page.
REFEX Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. REFEX scores 6/8, mixed financial health.
REFEX MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy REFEX with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 39.29% | 2.5× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 39.25% | 2.5× |
| Groww | 39.51% | 2.5× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 39.25% | 2.5× |
| Kotak Neo | 100.00% | 1.0× |
| Paytm Money | 42.42% | 2.4× |
| Pocketful | 39.71% | 2.5× |
| Fyers | 40.00% | 2.5× |
| Anand RathiCHEAPEST | 39.25% | 2.5× |
| Share India | 39.45% | 2.5× |
Compare every broker on the REFEX MTF page.
About REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context
REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED (REFEX) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹4,096 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the REFEX Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
REFEX analysis, FAQs
Is REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED (REFEX) a good buy?
On the numbers, REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED (REFEX) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 64/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.4× earnings, ROE of 17.8%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is REFEX overvalued or undervalued?
REFEX trades at 14.4× earnings, inexpensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.
What is the REFEX share price target for 2031?
REFEX's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹298, with an 80% range of ₹62-₹1,430 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability REFEX doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of REFEX reaching ₹586 (2×) within 5 years is 29%.
What is the bull case for REFEX?
REFEX's P/E of 14.1x is lower than 76% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. REFEX's return on equity of 17.8% ranks in the 79th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. REFEX's return on capital employed of 22.7% ranks in the 85th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
What are the risks in REFEX?
High historical volatility (53%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.