Case study

REGENCERAM

Regency Ceramics Ltd

Screens weak1y model -0.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

32Score

Regency Ceramics Ltd (REGENCERAM) Stock Analysis & Case Study

What the numbers say about REGENCERAM, and the method behind each one.

Regency Ceramics Ltd (REGENCERAM) trades at ₹36,on the numbers it screens weak, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 32/100.

On the numbers, Regency Ceramics Ltd (REGENCERAM) screens weak, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 32/100, weighing ROE of 10.0%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

REGENCERAM fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹96 Cr
Current price
₹36
Book value
₹-32
ROCE
-116.0%
ROE
10.0%
Piotroski F-Score
3/8

How REGENCERAM ranks against the 2,982 companies in our screener

We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for REGENCERAM, as of 14 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

REGENCERAM share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of REGENCERAM history (25%/yr drift, 52%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
REGENCERAM 2027₹18₹36₹71-0%
REGENCERAM 2028₹14₹36₹96-0%
REGENCERAM 2029₹11₹36₹119-1%
REGENCERAM 2030₹9₹36₹139-1%
REGENCERAM 2031₹8₹36₹162-1%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability REGENCERAM goes up, or doubles?

50%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
50%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
28%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹73 within 5 years

The bull case for REGENCERAM

  • Regency Ceramics Ltd is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹119.

The bear case & risks

  • REGENCERAM's return on equity of 10.0% ranks in the 47th percentile of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026.
  • REGENCERAM's Piotroski F-Score of 3/8 ranks in the 17th percentile of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026.
  • High historical volatility (52%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹11.

REGENCERAM volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years REGENCERAM compounded at 25%/year with annualized volatility of 52%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹18-₹71, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

REGENCERAM price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
0.2%
80% range₹18-₹71
P(price ↑)50%
P(price 2×)9%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
0.6%
80% range₹11-₹119
P(price ↑)50%
P(price 2×)22%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
1.0%
80% range₹8-₹162
P(price ↑)50%
P(price 2×)28%

REGENCERAM price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
REGENCERAM simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds REGENCERAM hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the REGENCERAM price target & forecast page.

REGENCERAM Piotroski F-Score: 3/8, how financially strong is it?

3/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. REGENCERAM scores 3/8, weak on the financial-strength checks.

About Regency Ceramics Ltd: sector, index & market-cap context

Regency Ceramics Ltd (REGENCERAM) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹96 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the REGENCERAM Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Regency Ceramics Ltd's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

REGENCERAM analysis, FAQs

Is Regency Ceramics Ltd (REGENCERAM) a good buy?

On the numbers, Regency Ceramics Ltd (REGENCERAM) screens weak, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 32/100, weighing ROE of 10.0%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is REGENCERAM overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation ratios for REGENCERAM are tracked live on Downstox.

What is the REGENCERAM share price target for 2031?

REGENCERAM's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹36, with an 80% range of ₹8-₹162 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability REGENCERAM doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of REGENCERAM reaching ₹73 (2×) within 5 years is 28%.

What is the bull case for REGENCERAM?

Regency Ceramics Ltd is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in REGENCERAM?

REGENCERAM's return on equity of 10.0% ranks in the 47th percentile of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026. REGENCERAM's Piotroski F-Score of 3/8 ranks in the 17th percentile of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026. High historical volatility (52%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on REGENCERAM

For information and education only. Downstox is a data and analytics platform, not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or Investment Adviser. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Any scores, ranks, targets or scenarios are model estimates shown with their method, not forecasts or assured outcomes. Markets carry risk; do your own research and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.