Case study

RPOWER

Reliance Power

High-risk on the numbers1y model -18.7%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Reliance Power (RPOWER) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is RPOWER a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Reliance Power (RPOWER) trades at ₹27,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 25/100.

On the numbers, Reliance Power (RPOWER) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 25/100, weighing premium at 38.8× earnings, ROE of -0.9%, a 36% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

RPOWER fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹10,947 Cr
Current price
₹27
P/E ratio
38.8×
P/B ratio
0.68×
Book value
₹39
ROCE
6.1%
ROE
-0.9%
Piotroski F-Score
2/9

Is RPOWER overvalued? RPOWER P/E vs its sector

RPOWER's P/E of 38.8× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.

RPOWER P/E
38.8×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
Peer median yield
1.66%

RPOWER share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of RPOWER history (-7%/yr drift, 55%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
RPOWER 2027₹11₹21₹43-19%
RPOWER 2028₹7₹17₹45-34%
RPOWER 2029₹4₹14₹46-47%
RPOWER 2030₹3₹11₹46-57%
RPOWER 2031₹2₹9₹43-65%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability RPOWER goes up, or doubles?

36%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
19%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
8%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹52 within 5 years

The bull case for RPOWER

  • Low price-to-book of 0.68×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹46.

The bear case & risks

  • At 38.8× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • A low Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 36% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • High historical volatility (55%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹4.

RPOWER volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years RPOWER compounded at -7%/year with annualized volatility of 55%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹11₹43, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

RPOWER price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
18.7%
80% range₹11–₹43
P(price ↑)36%
P(price 2×)5%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
47.4%
80% range₹4–₹46
P(price ↑)25%
P(price 2×)8%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
65.5%
80% range₹2–₹43
P(price ↑)19%
P(price 2×)8%

RPOWER price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
RPOWER simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds RPOWER hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the RPOWER price target & forecast page.

RPOWER Piotroski F-Score: 2/9, how financially strong is it?

2/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. RPOWER scores 2/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.

RPOWER MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy RPOWER with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST39.6%2.5×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST39.6%2.5×
Dhan40.0%2.5×

Compare every broker on the RPOWER MTF page.

RPOWER vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
RPOWER (this stock)38.8×₹10,947 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Reliance Power: sector, index & market-cap context

Reliance Power (RPOWER) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹10,947 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the RPOWER Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Reliance Power's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

RPOWER analysis, FAQs

Is Reliance Power (RPOWER) a good buy?

On the numbers, Reliance Power (RPOWER) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 25/100, weighing premium at 38.8× earnings, ROE of -0.9%, a 36% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is RPOWER overvalued or undervalued?

RPOWER trades at 38.8× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the RPOWER share price target for 2031?

RPOWER's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹9, with an 80% range of ₹2₹43 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability RPOWER doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of RPOWER reaching ₹52 (2×) within 5 years is 8%.

What is the bull case for RPOWER?

Low price-to-book of 0.68×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in RPOWER?

At 38.8× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. A low Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 36% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on RPOWER