SAREGAMA
Saregama India
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Saregama India (SAREGAMA) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is SAREGAMA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Saregama India (SAREGAMA) trades at ₹477,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 35/100.
On the numbers, Saregama India (SAREGAMA) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 35/100, weighing expensive at 43.2× earnings, ROE of 13.0%, a 35% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
SAREGAMA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is SAREGAMA overvalued? SAREGAMA P/E vs its sector
SAREGAMA's P/E of 43.2× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.94% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
SAREGAMA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of SAREGAMA history (-7%/yr drift, 43%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAREGAMA 2027 | ₹235 | ₹405 | ₹691 | -15% |
| SAREGAMA 2028 | ₹160 | ₹346 | ₹751 | -27% |
| SAREGAMA 2029 | ₹115 | ₹295 | ₹754 | -38% |
| SAREGAMA 2030 | ₹84 | ₹253 | ₹747 | -47% |
| SAREGAMA 2031 | ₹64 | ₹214 | ₹729 | -55% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability SAREGAMA goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for SAREGAMA
- A healthy 13.0% return on equity.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹754.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 43.2× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 35% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹115.
SAREGAMA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years SAREGAMA compounded at -7%/year with annualized volatility of 43%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹235–₹691, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
SAREGAMA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
SAREGAMA price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds SAREGAMA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the SAREGAMA price target & forecast page.
SAREGAMA Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. SAREGAMA scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
SAREGAMA MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy SAREGAMA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 34.9% | 2.9× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 34.9% | 2.9× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 34.9% | 2.9× |
Compare every broker on the SAREGAMA MTF page.
SAREGAMA vs peers,sector comparison
About Saregama India: sector, index & market-cap context
Saregama India (SAREGAMA) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹9,205 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the SAREGAMA Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Saregama India's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
SAREGAMA analysis, FAQs
Is Saregama India (SAREGAMA) a good buy?
On the numbers, Saregama India (SAREGAMA) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 35/100, weighing expensive at 43.2× earnings, ROE of 13.0%, a 35% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is SAREGAMA overvalued or undervalued?
SAREGAMA trades at 43.2× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the SAREGAMA share price target for 2031?
SAREGAMA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹214, with an 80% range of ₹64–₹729 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability SAREGAMA doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of SAREGAMA reaching ₹955 (2×) within 5 years is 6%.
What is the bull case for SAREGAMA?
A healthy 13.0% return on equity.
What are the risks in SAREGAMA?
A rich 43.2× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 35% chance of finishing above today's price.