Case study

SEL

Sungarner Energies Ltd

Worth a closer look1y model -4.6%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

55Score

Sungarner Energies Ltd (SEL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

What the numbers say about SEL, and the method behind each one.

Sungarner Energies Ltd (SEL) trades at ₹307,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 55/100.

On the numbers, Sungarner Energies Ltd (SEL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 55/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.6× earnings, ROE of 29.1%, a 47% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

SEL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹71 Cr
Current price
₹307
P/E ratio
18.6×
P/B ratio
4.72×
Book value
₹65
ROCE
23.4%
ROE
29.1%
Piotroski F-Score
3/8

How SEL ranks against the 2,982 companies in our screener

We do not hold 3-year revenue growth or debt-to-equity ratio figures for SEL, as of 14 Aug 2026, so those are not ranked here.

Is SEL overvalued? SEL P/E vs peers

SEL trades at 18.6× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

SEL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of SEL history (-1%/yr drift, 58%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
SEL 2027₹16₹34₹71-5%
SEL 2028₹11₹32₹92-9%
SEL 2029₹8₹31₹112-13%
SEL 2030₹6₹29₹132-17%
SEL 2031₹5₹28₹149-21%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability SEL goes up, or doubles?

47%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
43%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
24%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹71 within 5 years

The bull case for SEL

  • SEL's P/E of 18.6x is lower than 61% of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026.
  • SEL's return on equity of 29.1% ranks in the 92nd percentile of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026.
  • SEL's return on capital employed of 23.4% ranks in the 84th percentile of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹112.

The bear case & risks

  • SEL's Piotroski F-Score of 3/8 ranks in the 17th percentile of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026.
  • High historical volatility (58%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹8.

SEL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years SEL compounded at -1%/year with annualized volatility of 58%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹16-₹71, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

SEL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
4.6%
80% range₹16-₹71
P(price ↑)47%
P(price 2×)10%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
13.1%
80% range₹8-₹112
P(price ↑)44%
P(price 2×)21%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
20.8%
80% range₹5-₹149
P(price ↑)43%
P(price 2×)24%

SEL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
SEL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds SEL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the SEL price target & forecast page.

SEL Piotroski F-Score: 3/8, how financially strong is it?

3/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. SEL scores 3/8, weak on the financial-strength checks.

About Sungarner Energies Ltd: sector, index & market-cap context

Sungarner Energies Ltd (SEL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹71 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the SEL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Sungarner Energies Ltd's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

SEL analysis, FAQs

Is Sungarner Energies Ltd (SEL) a good buy?

On the numbers, Sungarner Energies Ltd (SEL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 55/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.6× earnings, ROE of 29.1%, a 47% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is SEL overvalued or undervalued?

SEL trades at 18.6× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the SEL share price target for 2031?

SEL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹28, with an 80% range of ₹5-₹149 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability SEL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of SEL reaching ₹71 (2×) within 5 years is 24%.

What is the bull case for SEL?

SEL's P/E of 18.6x is lower than 61% of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026. SEL's return on equity of 29.1% ranks in the 92nd percentile of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026. SEL's return on capital employed of 23.4% ranks in the 84th percentile of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in SEL?

SEL's Piotroski F-Score of 3/8 ranks in the 17th percentile of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026. High historical volatility (58%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on SEL

For information and education only. Downstox is a data and analytics platform, not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or Investment Adviser. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Any scores, ranks, targets or scenarios are model estimates shown with their method, not forecasts or assured outcomes. Markets carry risk; do your own research and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.