SETFGOLD
SBI-ETF Gold
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
SBI-ETF Gold (SETFGOLD) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is SETFGOLD a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100.
On the numbers, SBI-ETF Gold (SETFGOLD) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing a 90% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
SETFGOLD share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of SETFGOLD history (35%/yr drift, 24%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SETFGOLD 2027 | ₹124 | ₹170 | ₹235 | +38% |
| SETFGOLD 2028 | ₹150 | ₹234 | ₹367 | +90% |
| SETFGOLD 2029 | ₹185 | ₹320 | ₹554 | +159% |
| SETFGOLD 2030 | ₹234 | ₹439 | ₹832 | +255% |
| SETFGOLD 2031 | ₹299 | ₹603 | ₹1,224 | +389% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability SETFGOLD goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for SETFGOLD
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 90% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹170 (+38%).
- Relatively low volatility (24%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹554.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹185.
SETFGOLD volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years SETFGOLD compounded at 35%/year with annualized volatility of 24%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹124–₹235, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
SETFGOLD price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
SETFGOLD price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds SETFGOLD hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the SETFGOLD price target & forecast page.
SETFGOLD MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy SETFGOLD with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 29.0% | 3.5× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 29.0% | 3.5× |
| Dhan | 29.0% | 3.4× |
Compare every broker on the SETFGOLD MTF page.
SETFGOLD vs peers,sector comparison
About SBI-ETF Gold: sector, index & market-cap context
SBI-ETF Gold (SETFGOLD) is an NSE-listed company.
How the SETFGOLD Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of SBI-ETF Gold's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
SETFGOLD analysis, FAQs
Is SBI-ETF Gold (SETFGOLD) a good buy?
On the numbers, SBI-ETF Gold (SETFGOLD) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing a 90% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is SETFGOLD overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation ratios for SETFGOLD are tracked live on Downstox.
What is the SETFGOLD share price target for 2031?
SETFGOLD's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹603, with an 80% range of ₹299–₹1,224 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability SETFGOLD doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of SETFGOLD reaching ₹247 (2×) within 5 years is 95%.
What is the bull case for SETFGOLD?
A 10,000-path probability model puts a 90% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹170 (+38%). Relatively low volatility (24%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
What are the risks in SETFGOLD?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.