Case study

SETFNIF50

SBI Nifty 50 ETF

Worth a closer look1y model +12.1%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

61Score

SBI Nifty 50 ETF (SETFNIF50) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is SETFNIF50 a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100.

On the numbers, SBI Nifty 50 ETF (SETFNIF50) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing a 83% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

How SETFNIF50 ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

SETFNIF50 is not currently one of the 2,373 companies in our live screener universe, so no percentile comparison is available for it here.

SETFNIF50 share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of SETFNIF50 history (11%/yr drift, 12%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
SETFNIF50 2027₹253₹296₹347+12%
SETFNIF50 2028₹266₹332₹415+26%
SETFNIF50 2029₹284₹373₹489+41%
SETFNIF50 2030₹304₹418₹573+58%
SETFNIF50 2031₹330₹468₹665+77%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability SETFNIF50 goes up, or doubles?

83%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
98%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
34%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹529 within 5 years

The bull case for SETFNIF50

  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 83% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹296 (+12%).
  • Relatively low volatility (12%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹489.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹284.

SETFNIF50 volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years SETFNIF50 compounded at 11%/year with annualized volatility of 12%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹253-₹347, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

SETFNIF50 price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
12.1%
80% range₹253-₹347
P(price ↑)83%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
40.9%
80% range₹284-₹489
P(price ↑)95%
P(price 2×)5%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
77.1%
80% range₹330-₹665
P(price ↑)98%
P(price 2×)34%

SETFNIF50 price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
SETFNIF50 simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds SETFNIF50 hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the SETFNIF50 price target & forecast page.

SETFNIF50 MTF margin & leverage across 9 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy SETFNIF50 with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 9 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox20.00%5.0×
Zerodha20.00%5.0×
Groww20.00%5.0×
Dhan20.00%5.0×
Kotak Neo20.00%5.0×
Paytm Money20.00%5.0×
Fyers20.00%5.0×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST16.00%6.3×
Share India20.00%5.0×

Compare every broker on the SETFNIF50 MTF page.

About SBI Nifty 50 ETF: sector, index & market-cap context

SBI Nifty 50 ETF (SETFNIF50) is an NSE-listed company. See more stocks on our screener.

How the SETFNIF50 Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of SBI Nifty 50 ETF's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

SETFNIF50 analysis, FAQs

Is SBI Nifty 50 ETF (SETFNIF50) a good buy?

On the numbers, SBI Nifty 50 ETF (SETFNIF50) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing a 83% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is SETFNIF50 overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation ratios for SETFNIF50 are tracked live on Downstox.

What is the SETFNIF50 share price target for 2031?

SETFNIF50's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹468, with an 80% range of ₹330-₹665 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability SETFNIF50 doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of SETFNIF50 reaching ₹529 (2×) within 5 years is 34%.

What is the bull case for SETFNIF50?

A 10,000-path probability model puts a 83% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹296 (+12%). Relatively low volatility (12%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.

What are the risks in SETFNIF50?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on SETFNIF50