Case study

SGFIN

SG FINSERVE LIMITED

Mixed signals1y model +12.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

47Score

SG FINSERVE LIMITED (SGFIN) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is SGFIN a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

SG FINSERVE LIMITED (SGFIN) trades at ₹710,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100.

On the numbers, SG FINSERVE LIMITED (SGFIN) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing premium at 29.8× earnings, ROE of 10.3%, a 60% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

SGFIN fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹4,672 Cr
Current price
₹710
P/E ratio
29.8×
P/B ratio
3.17×
Book value
₹224
ROCE
9.3%
ROE
10.3%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How SGFIN ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for SGFIN, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

Is SGFIN overvalued? SGFIN P/E vs peers

SGFIN trades at 29.8× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

SGFIN share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of SGFIN history (41%/yr drift, 44%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
SGFIN 2027₹442₹777₹1,364+12%
SGFIN 2028₹387₹872₹1,966+26%
SGFIN 2029₹363₹980₹2,643+42%
SGFIN 2030₹350₹1,101₹3,458+59%
SGFIN 2031₹347₹1,237₹4,408+79%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability SGFIN goes up, or doubles?

60%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
72%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
45%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,383 within 5 years

The bull case for SGFIN

  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 60% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹777 (+12%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,643.

The bear case & risks

  • SGFIN's P/E of 29.2x is lower than 47% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • SGFIN's return on equity of 10.3% ranks in the 51st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹363.

SGFIN volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years SGFIN compounded at 41%/year with annualized volatility of 44%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹442-₹1,364, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

SGFIN price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
12.3%
80% range₹442-₹1,364
P(price ↑)60%
P(price 2×)10%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
41.7%
80% range₹363-₹2,643
P(price ↑)68%
P(price 2×)33%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
78.8%
80% range₹347-₹4,408
P(price ↑)72%
P(price 2×)45%

SGFIN price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
SGFIN simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds SGFIN hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the SGFIN price target & forecast page.

SGFIN Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. SGFIN scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

SGFIN MTF margin & leverage across 9 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy SGFIN with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 9 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.32%2.8×
Zerodha35.30%2.8×
Groww35.41%2.8×
Dhan40.00%2.5×
Kotak Neo100.00%1.0×
Paytm Money50.00%2.0×
PocketfulCHEAPEST35.29%2.8×
Anand Rathi35.30%2.8×
Share India35.41%2.8×

Compare every broker on the SGFIN MTF page.

About SG FINSERVE LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

SG FINSERVE LIMITED (SGFIN) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹4,672 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the SGFIN Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of SG FINSERVE LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

SGFIN analysis, FAQs

Is SG FINSERVE LIMITED (SGFIN) a good buy?

On the numbers, SG FINSERVE LIMITED (SGFIN) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing premium at 29.8× earnings, ROE of 10.3%, a 60% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is SGFIN overvalued or undervalued?

SGFIN trades at 29.8× earnings, premium versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the SGFIN share price target for 2031?

SGFIN's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,237, with an 80% range of ₹347-₹4,408 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability SGFIN doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of SGFIN reaching ₹1,383 (2×) within 5 years is 45%.

What is the bull case for SGFIN?

A 10,000-path probability model puts a 60% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹777 (+12%).

What are the risks in SGFIN?

SGFIN's P/E of 29.2x is lower than 47% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. SGFIN's return on equity of 10.3% ranks in the 51st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on SGFIN