Case study

SHREECEM

Shree Cement

Tread carefully1y model -6.8%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Shree Cement (SHREECEM) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is SHREECEM a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Shree Cement (SHREECEM) trades at ₹24,995,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 30/100.

On the numbers, Shree Cement (SHREECEM) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 30/100, weighing expensive at 51.8× earnings, ROE of 7.8%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

SHREECEM fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹90,293 Cr
Current price
₹24,995
P/E ratio
51.8×
P/B ratio
3.88×
Book value
₹6,449
Dividend yield
0.44%
ROCE
10.5%
ROE
7.8%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is SHREECEM overvalued? SHREECEM P/E vs its sector

SHREECEM's P/E of 51.8× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.44% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

SHREECEM P/E
51.8×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
SHREECEM div yield
0.44%
Peer median yield
1.65%

SHREECEM share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of SHREECEM history (-4%/yr drift, 21%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
SHREECEM 2027₹17,894₹23,373₹30,713-7%
SHREECEM 2028₹14,965₹21,828₹32,159-13%
SHREECEM 2029₹12,804₹20,508₹32,747-18%
SHREECEM 2030₹11,213₹19,260₹32,986-23%
SHREECEM 2031₹9,916₹18,042₹33,015-28%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability SHREECEM goes up, or doubles?

37%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
25%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
2%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹50,150 within 5 years

The bull case for SHREECEM

  • Relatively low volatility (21%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹32,747.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 51.8× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • Return on equity is a soft 7.8%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹12,804.

SHREECEM volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years SHREECEM compounded at -4%/year with annualized volatility of 21%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹17,894₹30,713, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

SHREECEM price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
6.8%
80% range₹17,894–₹30,713
P(price ↑)37%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
18.2%
80% range₹12,804–₹32,747
P(price ↑)29%
P(price 2×)1%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
28.0%
80% range₹9,916–₹33,015
P(price ↑)25%
P(price 2×)2%

SHREECEM price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
SHREECEM simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds SHREECEM hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the SHREECEM price target & forecast page.

SHREECEM Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. SHREECEM scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

SHREECEM MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy SHREECEM with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox26.5%3.8×
Zerodha22.6%4.4×
DhanCHEAPEST22.0%4.5×

Compare every broker on the SHREECEM MTF page.

SHREECEM vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
SHREECEM (this stock)51.8×0.44%₹90,293 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Shree Cement: sector, index & market-cap context

Shree Cement (SHREECEM) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹90,293 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the SHREECEM Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Shree Cement's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

SHREECEM analysis, FAQs

Is Shree Cement (SHREECEM) a good buy?

On the numbers, Shree Cement (SHREECEM) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 30/100, weighing expensive at 51.8× earnings, ROE of 7.8%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is SHREECEM overvalued or undervalued?

SHREECEM trades at 51.8× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the SHREECEM share price target for 2031?

SHREECEM's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹18,042, with an 80% range of ₹9,916₹33,015 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability SHREECEM doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of SHREECEM reaching ₹50,150 (2×) within 5 years is 2%.

What is the bull case for SHREECEM?

Relatively low volatility (21%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.

What are the risks in SHREECEM?

A rich 51.8× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 7.8%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on SHREECEM