Case study

SMCGLOBAL

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (India)

Mixed signals1y model +1.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

49Score

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (India) (SMCGLOBAL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is SMCGLOBAL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (India) (SMCGLOBAL) trades at ₹81,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100.

On the numbers, SMC Global Securities Ltd. (India) (SMCGLOBAL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing fairly valued at 15.8× earnings, ROE of 8.1%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

SMCGLOBAL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1,715 Cr
Current price
₹81
P/E ratio
15.8×
P/B ratio
1.29×
Book value
₹62
Dividend yield
1.49%
ROCE
11.4%
ROE
8.1%
Piotroski F-Score
4/8

How SMCGLOBAL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is SMCGLOBAL overvalued? SMCGLOBAL P/E vs peers

SMCGLOBAL trades at 15.8× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

SMCGLOBAL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 5.3y of SMCGLOBAL history (10%/yr drift, 42%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
SMCGLOBAL 2027₹48₹81₹137+1%
SMCGLOBAL 2028₹38₹82₹174+3%
SMCGLOBAL 2029₹33₹83₹208+4%
SMCGLOBAL 2030₹29₹84₹247+6%
SMCGLOBAL 2031₹26₹85₹280+7%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability SMCGLOBAL goes up, or doubles?

51%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
53%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
25%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹159 within 5 years

The bull case for SMCGLOBAL

  • SMCGLOBAL's P/E of 15.3x is lower than 73% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Low price-to-book of 1.29×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹208.

The bear case & risks

  • SMCGLOBAL's return on equity of 8.1% ranks in the 40th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹33.

SMCGLOBAL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 5.3 years SMCGLOBAL compounded at 10%/year with annualized volatility of 42%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹48-₹137, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

SMCGLOBAL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 5.3 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.4%
80% range₹48-₹137
P(price ↑)51%
P(price 2×)5%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
4.2%
80% range₹33-₹208
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)18%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
7.1%
80% range₹26-₹280
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)25%

SMCGLOBAL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
SMCGLOBAL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds SMCGLOBAL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the SMCGLOBAL price target & forecast page.

SMCGLOBAL Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?

4/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. SMCGLOBAL scores 4/8, mixed financial health.

SMCGLOBAL MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy SMCGLOBAL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.42%2.8×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST35.39%2.8×
Groww35.60%2.8×
Dhan50.00%2.0×
Kotak Neo100.00%1.0×
Paytm Money35.47%2.8×
Pocketful35.87%2.8×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST35.39%2.8×
Bajaj Broking50.00%2.0×
Share India35.56%2.8×

Compare every broker on the SMCGLOBAL MTF page.

About SMC Global Securities Ltd. (India): sector, index & market-cap context

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (India) (SMCGLOBAL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,715 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the SMCGLOBAL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of SMC Global Securities Ltd. (India)'s public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

SMCGLOBAL analysis, FAQs

Is SMC Global Securities Ltd. (India) (SMCGLOBAL) a good buy?

On the numbers, SMC Global Securities Ltd. (India) (SMCGLOBAL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing fairly valued at 15.8× earnings, ROE of 8.1%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is SMCGLOBAL overvalued or undervalued?

SMCGLOBAL trades at 15.8× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the SMCGLOBAL share price target for 2031?

SMCGLOBAL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹85, with an 80% range of ₹26-₹280 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability SMCGLOBAL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of SMCGLOBAL reaching ₹159 (2×) within 5 years is 25%.

What is the bull case for SMCGLOBAL?

SMCGLOBAL's P/E of 15.3x is lower than 73% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. Low price-to-book of 1.29×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in SMCGLOBAL?

SMCGLOBAL's return on equity of 8.1% ranks in the 40th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on SMCGLOBAL