SMLMAH
SML MAHINDRA LIMITED
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
SML MAHINDRA LIMITED (SMLMAH) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is SMLMAH a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
SML MAHINDRA LIMITED (SMLMAH) trades at ₹5,672,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100.
On the numbers, SML MAHINDRA LIMITED (SMLMAH) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing expensive at 52.6× earnings, ROE of 35.4%, a 48% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
SMLMAH fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How SMLMAH ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- SMLMAH's market cap of 8,037 Cr ranks in the 73rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- SMLMAH's book value of ₹359 ranks in the 85th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- SMLMAH's promoter holding of 59.0% ranks in the 50th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- SMLMAH's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 100.0% ranks in the 94th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- SMLMAH's 3-year revenue growth of 16.0% ranks in the 65th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- SMLMAH's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.56x is lower than 32% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is SMLMAH overvalued? SMLMAH P/E vs peers
SMLMAH trades at 52.6× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.
SMLMAH share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of SMLMAH history (15%/yr drift, 56%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMLMAH 2027 | ₹2,676 | ₹5,377 | ₹10,805 | -3% |
| SMLMAH 2028 | ₹1,879 | ₹5,206 | ₹14,427 | -6% |
| SMLMAH 2029 | ₹1,459 | ₹5,040 | ₹17,411 | -9% |
| SMLMAH 2030 | ₹1,154 | ₹4,880 | ₹20,635 | -12% |
| SMLMAH 2031 | ₹940 | ₹4,724 | ₹23,739 | -15% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability SMLMAH goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for SMLMAH
- SMLMAH's return on equity of 35.4% ranks in the top 4% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- SMLMAH's return on capital employed of 30.9% ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹17,411.
The bear case & risks
- SMLMAH's P/E of 51.4x is lower than 26% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- A steep 15.8× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- High historical volatility (56%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,459.
SMLMAH volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years SMLMAH compounded at 15%/year with annualized volatility of 56%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹2,676-₹10,805, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
SMLMAH price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
SMLMAH price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds SMLMAH hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the SMLMAH price target & forecast page.
SMLMAH Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. SMLMAH scores 6/8, mixed financial health.
SMLMAH MTF margin & leverage across 9 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy SMLMAH with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 9 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Groww | 50.00% | 2.0× |
| Dhan | 64.00% | 1.6× |
| Kotak Neo | 50.00% | 2.0× |
| Paytm Money | 100.00% | 1.0× |
| Pocketful | 50.00% | 2.0× |
| Fyers | 62.50% | 1.6× |
| Anand Rathi | 50.00% | 2.0× |
| Bajaj Broking | 64.00% | 1.6× |
| Share IndiaCHEAPEST | 42.58% | 2.3× |
Compare every broker on the SMLMAH MTF page.
About SML MAHINDRA LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context
SML MAHINDRA LIMITED (SMLMAH) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹8,224 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the SMLMAH Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of SML MAHINDRA LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
SMLMAH analysis, FAQs
Is SML MAHINDRA LIMITED (SMLMAH) a good buy?
On the numbers, SML MAHINDRA LIMITED (SMLMAH) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing expensive at 52.6× earnings, ROE of 35.4%, a 48% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is SMLMAH overvalued or undervalued?
SMLMAH trades at 52.6× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.
What is the SMLMAH share price target for 2031?
SMLMAH's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹4,724, with an 80% range of ₹940-₹23,739 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability SMLMAH doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of SMLMAH reaching ₹11,108 (2×) within 5 years is 25%.
What is the bull case for SMLMAH?
SMLMAH's return on equity of 35.4% ranks in the top 4% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. SMLMAH's return on capital employed of 30.9% ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
What are the risks in SMLMAH?
SMLMAH's P/E of 51.4x is lower than 26% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 15.8× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. High historical volatility (56%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.