Case study

SMSPHARMA

Sms Pharmaceuticals Limited

Tread carefully1y model +0.7%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

42Score

Sms Pharmaceuticals Limited (SMSPHARMA) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is SMSPHARMA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Sms Pharmaceuticals Limited (SMSPHARMA) trades at ₹357,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 42/100.

On the numbers, Sms Pharmaceuticals Limited (SMSPHARMA) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 42/100, weighing premium at 32.7× earnings, ROE of 14.3%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

SMSPHARMA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹3,344 Cr
Current price
₹357
P/E ratio
32.7×
P/B ratio
4.26×
Book value
₹84
Dividend yield
0.11%
ROCE
13.3%
ROE
14.3%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How SMSPHARMA ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is SMSPHARMA overvalued? SMSPHARMA P/E vs peers

SMSPHARMA trades at 32.7× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

SMSPHARMA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of SMSPHARMA history (15%/yr drift, 49%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
SMSPHARMA 2027₹201₹381₹720+1%
SMSPHARMA 2028₹159₹383₹925+1%
SMSPHARMA 2029₹133₹386₹1,119+2%
SMSPHARMA 2030₹111₹388₹1,351+3%
SMSPHARMA 2031₹97₹391₹1,567+3%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability SMSPHARMA goes up, or doubles?

50%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
51%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
27%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹756 within 5 years

The bull case for SMSPHARMA

  • SMSPHARMA's return on equity of 14.3% ranks in the 69th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,119.

The bear case & risks

  • SMSPHARMA's P/E of 34.6x is lower than 40% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • High historical volatility (49%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹133.

SMSPHARMA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years SMSPHARMA compounded at 15%/year with annualized volatility of 49%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹201-₹720, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

SMSPHARMA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
0.7%
80% range₹201-₹720
P(price ↑)50%
P(price 2×)8%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
2.0%
80% range₹133-₹1,119
P(price ↑)51%
P(price 2×)21%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
3.3%
80% range₹97-₹1,567
P(price ↑)51%
P(price 2×)27%

SMSPHARMA price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
SMSPHARMA simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds SMSPHARMA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the SMSPHARMA price target & forecast page.

SMSPHARMA Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. SMSPHARMA scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

SMSPHARMA MTF margin & leverage across 9 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy SMSPHARMA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 9 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST36.83%2.7×
Zerodha36.97%2.7×
Groww36.97%2.7×
Dhan36.97%2.7×
Kotak Neo40.00%2.5×
Paytm Money37.02%2.7×
Pocketful37.18%2.7×
Anand Rathi36.97%2.7×
Share India36.96%2.7×

Compare every broker on the SMSPHARMA MTF page.

About Sms Pharmaceuticals Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Sms Pharmaceuticals Limited (SMSPHARMA) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹3,344 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the SMSPHARMA Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Sms Pharmaceuticals Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

SMSPHARMA analysis, FAQs

Is Sms Pharmaceuticals Limited (SMSPHARMA) a good buy?

On the numbers, Sms Pharmaceuticals Limited (SMSPHARMA) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 42/100, weighing premium at 32.7× earnings, ROE of 14.3%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is SMSPHARMA overvalued or undervalued?

SMSPHARMA trades at 32.7× earnings, premium versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the SMSPHARMA share price target for 2031?

SMSPHARMA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹391, with an 80% range of ₹97-₹1,567 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability SMSPHARMA doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of SMSPHARMA reaching ₹756 (2×) within 5 years is 27%.

What is the bull case for SMSPHARMA?

SMSPHARMA's return on equity of 14.3% ranks in the 69th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in SMSPHARMA?

SMSPHARMA's P/E of 34.6x is lower than 40% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. High historical volatility (49%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on SMSPHARMA