Case study

SPMLINFRA

SPML Infra Limited

Tread carefully1y model -0.6%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

44Score

SPML Infra Limited (SPMLINFRA) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is SPMLINFRA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

SPML Infra Limited (SPMLINFRA) trades at ₹195,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100.

On the numbers, SPML Infra Limited (SPMLINFRA) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100, weighing fairly valued at 22.1× earnings, ROE of 8.7%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

SPMLINFRA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1,650 Cr
Current price
₹195
P/E ratio
22.1×
P/B ratio
1.63×
Book value
₹120
ROCE
6.8%
ROE
8.7%
Piotroski F-Score
4/8

How SPMLINFRA ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is SPMLINFRA overvalued? SPMLINFRA P/E vs peers

SPMLINFRA trades at 22.1× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

SPMLINFRA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of SPMLINFRA history (10%/yr drift, 53%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
SPMLINFRA 2027₹95₹189₹374-1%
SPMLINFRA 2028₹73₹188₹480-1%
SPMLINFRA 2029₹59₹187₹594-2%
SPMLINFRA 2030₹50₹186₹693-2%
SPMLINFRA 2031₹41₹185₹822-3%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability SPMLINFRA goes up, or doubles?

50%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
49%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
27%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹380 within 5 years

The bull case for SPMLINFRA

  • SPMLINFRA's P/E of 21.6x is lower than 59% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹594.

The bear case & risks

  • SPMLINFRA's return on equity of 8.7% ranks in the 43rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • High historical volatility (53%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹59.

SPMLINFRA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years SPMLINFRA compounded at 10%/year with annualized volatility of 53%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹95-₹374, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

SPMLINFRA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
0.6%
80% range₹95-₹374
P(price ↑)50%
P(price 2×)9%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
1.7%
80% range₹59-₹594
P(price ↑)49%
P(price 2×)21%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
2.8%
80% range₹41-₹822
P(price ↑)49%
P(price 2×)27%

SPMLINFRA price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
SPMLINFRA simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds SPMLINFRA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the SPMLINFRA price target & forecast page.

SPMLINFRA Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?

4/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. SPMLINFRA scores 4/8, mixed financial health.

SPMLINFRA MTF margin & leverage across 9 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy SPMLINFRA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 9 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox39.17%2.6×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST39.14%2.6×
Groww39.36%2.5×
Dhan40.00%2.5×
Kotak Neo100.00%1.0×
Paytm Money39.60%2.5×
Pocketful39.96%2.5×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST39.14%2.6×
Share India39.33%2.5×

Compare every broker on the SPMLINFRA MTF page.

About SPML Infra Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

SPML Infra Limited (SPMLINFRA) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,650 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the SPMLINFRA Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of SPML Infra Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

SPMLINFRA analysis, FAQs

Is SPML Infra Limited (SPMLINFRA) a good buy?

On the numbers, SPML Infra Limited (SPMLINFRA) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100, weighing fairly valued at 22.1× earnings, ROE of 8.7%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is SPMLINFRA overvalued or undervalued?

SPMLINFRA trades at 22.1× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the SPMLINFRA share price target for 2031?

SPMLINFRA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹185, with an 80% range of ₹41-₹822 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability SPMLINFRA doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of SPMLINFRA reaching ₹380 (2×) within 5 years is 27%.

What is the bull case for SPMLINFRA?

SPMLINFRA's P/E of 21.6x is lower than 59% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in SPMLINFRA?

SPMLINFRA's return on equity of 8.7% ranks in the 43rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. High historical volatility (53%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on SPMLINFRA