Case study

SRF

SRF

Tread carefully1y model +1.0%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

SRF (SRF) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is SRF a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

SRF (SRF) trades at ₹2,721,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100.

On the numbers, SRF (SRF) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 42.4× earnings, ROE of 14.3%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

SRF fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹80,663 Cr
Current price
₹2,721
P/E ratio
42.4×
P/B ratio
5.74×
Book value
₹474
Dividend yield
0.33%
ROCE
14.6%
ROE
14.3%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is SRF overvalued? SRF P/E vs its sector

SRF's P/E of 42.4× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.33% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

SRF P/E
42.4×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
SRF div yield
0.33%
Peer median yield
1.65%

SRF share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of SRF history (6%/yr drift, 29%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
SRF 2027₹1,884₹2,738₹4,016+1%
SRF 2028₹1,649₹2,791₹4,750+3%
SRF 2029₹1,477₹2,817₹5,454+4%
SRF 2030₹1,335₹2,874₹6,124+6%
SRF 2031₹1,247₹2,907₹6,695+7%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability SRF goes up, or doubles?

52%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
54%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
17%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹5,420 within 5 years

The bull case for SRF

  • A healthy 14.3% return on equity.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹5,454.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 42.4× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,477.

SRF volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years SRF compounded at 6%/year with annualized volatility of 29%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,884₹4,016, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

SRF price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.0%
80% range₹1,884–₹4,016
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
4.0%
80% range₹1,477–₹5,454
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)10%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
7.3%
80% range₹1,247–₹6,695
P(price ↑)54%
P(price 2×)17%

SRF price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
SRF simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds SRF hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the SRF price target & forecast page.

SRF Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. SRF scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

SRF MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy SRF with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox29.5%3.4×
Zerodha25.1%4.0×
DhanCHEAPEST23.0%4.3×

Compare every broker on the SRF MTF page.

SRF vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
SRF (this stock)42.4×0.33%₹80,663 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About SRF: sector, index & market-cap context

SRF (SRF) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹80,663 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the SRF Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of SRF's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

SRF analysis, FAQs

Is SRF (SRF) a good buy?

On the numbers, SRF (SRF) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 42.4× earnings, ROE of 14.3%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is SRF overvalued or undervalued?

SRF trades at 42.4× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the SRF share price target for 2031?

SRF's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2,907, with an 80% range of ₹1,247₹6,695 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability SRF doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of SRF reaching ₹5,420 (2×) within 5 years is 17%.

What is the bull case for SRF?

A healthy 14.3% return on equity.

What are the risks in SRF?

A rich 42.4× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.

More on SRF