Case study

SUMICHEM

Sumitomo Chemical India

Mixed signals1y model -9.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Sumitomo Chemical India (SUMICHEM) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is SUMICHEM a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Sumitomo Chemical India (SUMICHEM) trades at ₹439,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100.

On the numbers, Sumitomo Chemical India (SUMICHEM) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100, weighing premium at 39.5× earnings, ROE of 17.6%, a 39% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

SUMICHEM fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹21,920 Cr
Current price
₹439
P/E ratio
39.5×
P/B ratio
6.47×
Book value
₹68
Dividend yield
0.30%
ROCE
23.4%
ROE
17.6%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is SUMICHEM overvalued? SUMICHEM P/E vs its sector

SUMICHEM's P/E of 39.5× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.30% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

SUMICHEM P/E
39.5×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
SUMICHEM div yield
0.30%
Peer median yield
1.65%

SUMICHEM share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of SUMICHEM history (-4%/yr drift, 36%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
SUMICHEM 2027₹258₹408₹646-10%
SUMICHEM 2028₹193₹369₹705-18%
SUMICHEM 2029₹152₹333₹737-27%
SUMICHEM 2030₹118₹304₹745-33%
SUMICHEM 2031₹98₹271₹752-40%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability SUMICHEM goes up, or doubles?

39%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
27%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
7%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹905 within 5 years

The bull case for SUMICHEM

  • A healthy 17.6% return on equity.
  • Strong ROCE (23.4%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹737.

The bear case & risks

  • At 39.5× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 39% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹152.

SUMICHEM volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years SUMICHEM compounded at -4%/year with annualized volatility of 36%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹258₹646, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

SUMICHEM price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
9.9%
80% range₹258–₹646
P(price ↑)39%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
26.5%
80% range₹152–₹737
P(price ↑)31%
P(price 2×)5%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
40.2%
80% range₹98–₹752
P(price ↑)27%
P(price 2×)7%

SUMICHEM price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
SUMICHEM simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds SUMICHEM hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the SUMICHEM price target & forecast page.

SUMICHEM Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. SUMICHEM scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

SUMICHEM MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy SUMICHEM with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST31.2%3.2×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST31.2%3.2×
DhanCHEAPEST31.2%3.2×

Compare every broker on the SUMICHEM MTF page.

SUMICHEM vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
SUMICHEM (this stock)39.5×0.30%₹21,920 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Sumitomo Chemical India: sector, index & market-cap context

Sumitomo Chemical India (SUMICHEM) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹21,920 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the SUMICHEM Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Sumitomo Chemical India's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

SUMICHEM analysis, FAQs

Is Sumitomo Chemical India (SUMICHEM) a good buy?

On the numbers, Sumitomo Chemical India (SUMICHEM) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100, weighing premium at 39.5× earnings, ROE of 17.6%, a 39% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is SUMICHEM overvalued or undervalued?

SUMICHEM trades at 39.5× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the SUMICHEM share price target for 2031?

SUMICHEM's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹271, with an 80% range of ₹98₹752 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability SUMICHEM doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of SUMICHEM reaching ₹905 (2×) within 5 years is 7%.

What is the bull case for SUMICHEM?

A healthy 17.6% return on equity. Strong ROCE (23.4%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in SUMICHEM?

At 39.5× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 39% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on SUMICHEM