Case study

SUNDARMFIN

Sundaram Finance

Mixed signals1y model -9.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Sundaram Finance (SUNDARMFIN) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is SUNDARMFIN a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Sundaram Finance (SUNDARMFIN) trades at ₹4,539,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100.

On the numbers, Sundaram Finance (SUNDARMFIN) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100, weighing fairly valued at 23.9× earnings, ROE of 15.1%, a 39% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

SUNDARMFIN fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹50,468 Cr
Current price
₹4,539
P/E ratio
23.9×
P/B ratio
3.38×
Book value
₹1,341
Dividend yield
0.88%
ROCE
9.4%
ROE
15.1%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is SUNDARMFIN overvalued? SUNDARMFIN P/E vs its sector

SUNDARMFIN's P/E of 23.9× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.88% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

SUNDARMFIN P/E
23.9×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
SUNDARMFIN div yield
0.88%
Peer median yield
1.65%

SUNDARMFIN share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of SUNDARMFIN history (-3%/yr drift, 37%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
SUNDARMFIN 2027₹2,529₹4,058₹6,497-9%
SUNDARMFIN 2028₹1,878₹3,646₹7,101-19%
SUNDARMFIN 2029₹1,451₹3,343₹7,392-25%
SUNDARMFIN 2030₹1,166₹3,033₹7,646-32%
SUNDARMFIN 2031₹948₹2,753₹7,810-38%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability SUNDARMFIN goes up, or doubles?

39%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
28%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
7%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹8,951 within 5 years

The bull case for SUNDARMFIN

  • A 23.9× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • A healthy 15.1% return on equity.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹7,392.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 39% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,451.

SUNDARMFIN volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years SUNDARMFIN compounded at -3%/year with annualized volatility of 37%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹2,529₹6,497, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

SUNDARMFIN price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
9.3%
80% range₹2,529–₹6,497
P(price ↑)39%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
25.3%
80% range₹1,451–₹7,392
P(price ↑)32%
P(price 2×)5%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
38.5%
80% range₹948–₹7,810
P(price ↑)28%
P(price 2×)7%

SUNDARMFIN price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
SUNDARMFIN simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds SUNDARMFIN hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the SUNDARMFIN price target & forecast page.

SUNDARMFIN Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. SUNDARMFIN scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

SUNDARMFIN MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy SUNDARMFIN with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST31.4%3.2×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST31.4%3.2×
DhanCHEAPEST31.4%3.2×

Compare every broker on the SUNDARMFIN MTF page.

Which ace investors hold SUNDARMFIN?

Held by 1 tracked superstar investor (from public NSE/BSE disclosures):

SUNDARMFIN vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
SUNDARMFIN (this stock)23.9×0.88%₹50,468 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Sundaram Finance: sector, index & market-cap context

Sundaram Finance (SUNDARMFIN) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹50,468 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the SUNDARMFIN Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Sundaram Finance's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

SUNDARMFIN analysis, FAQs

Is Sundaram Finance (SUNDARMFIN) a good buy?

On the numbers, Sundaram Finance (SUNDARMFIN) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100, weighing fairly valued at 23.9× earnings, ROE of 15.1%, a 39% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is SUNDARMFIN overvalued or undervalued?

SUNDARMFIN trades at 23.9× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the SUNDARMFIN share price target for 2031?

SUNDARMFIN's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2,753, with an 80% range of ₹948₹7,810 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability SUNDARMFIN doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of SUNDARMFIN reaching ₹8,951 (2×) within 5 years is 7%.

What is the bull case for SUNDARMFIN?

A 23.9× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. A healthy 15.1% return on equity.

What are the risks in SUNDARMFIN?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 39% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on SUNDARMFIN