SWANCORP
Swan Energy
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Swan Energy (SWANCORP) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is SWANCORP a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Swan Energy (SWANCORP) trades at ₹327,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100.
On the numbers, Swan Energy (SWANCORP) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing premium at 37.4× earnings, ROE of 3.7%, a 17% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
SWANCORP fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is SWANCORP overvalued? SWANCORP P/E vs its sector
SWANCORP's P/E of 37.4× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.03% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
SWANCORP share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of SWANCORP history (-34%/yr drift, 46%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWANCORP 2027 | ₹112 | ₹204 | ₹368 | -36% |
| SWANCORP 2028 | ₹56 | ₹130 | ₹298 | -59% |
| SWANCORP 2029 | ₹30 | ₹82 | ₹226 | -74% |
| SWANCORP 2030 | ₹16 | ₹53 | ₹171 | -83% |
| SWANCORP 2031 | ₹9 | ₹33 | ₹128 | -90% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability SWANCORP goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for SWANCORP
- Low price-to-book of 1.36×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹226.
The bear case & risks
- At 37.4× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- Return on equity is a soft 3.7%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 17% chance of finishing above today's price.
- High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹30.
SWANCORP volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years SWANCORP compounded at -34%/year with annualized volatility of 46%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹112–₹368, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
SWANCORP price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
SWANCORP price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds SWANCORP hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the SWANCORP price target & forecast page.
SWANCORP Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. SWANCORP scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
SWANCORP MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy SWANCORP with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 35.4% | 2.8× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 35.4% | 2.8× |
Compare every broker on the SWANCORP MTF page.
SWANCORP vs peers,sector comparison
About Swan Energy: sector, index & market-cap context
Swan Energy (SWANCORP) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹10,239 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.
How the SWANCORP Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Swan Energy's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
SWANCORP analysis, FAQs
Is Swan Energy (SWANCORP) a good buy?
On the numbers, Swan Energy (SWANCORP) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing premium at 37.4× earnings, ROE of 3.7%, a 17% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is SWANCORP overvalued or undervalued?
SWANCORP trades at 37.4× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the SWANCORP share price target for 2031?
SWANCORP's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹33, with an 80% range of ₹9–₹128 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability SWANCORP doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of SWANCORP reaching ₹637 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for SWANCORP?
Low price-to-book of 1.36×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in SWANCORP?
At 37.4× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. Return on equity is a soft 3.7%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 17% chance of finishing above today's price.