Case study

TARIL

Transformers and Rectifiers (India) Limited

Mixed signals1y model -0.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

53Score

Transformers and Rectifiers (India) Limited (TARIL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is TARIL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Transformers and Rectifiers (India) Limited (TARIL) trades at ₹296,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100.

On the numbers, Transformers and Rectifiers (India) Limited (TARIL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing premium at 34.4× earnings, ROE of 19.1%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

TARIL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹8,891 Cr
Current price
₹296
P/E ratio
34.4×
P/B ratio
5.86×
Book value
₹51
Dividend yield
0.07%
ROCE
23.3%
ROE
19.1%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How TARIL ranks against the 2,371 companies in our screener

Is TARIL overvalued? TARIL P/E vs peers

TARIL trades at 34.4× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

TARIL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of TARIL history (30%/yr drift, 56%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
TARIL 2027₹144₹297₹611-0%
TARIL 2028₹105₹297₹841-0%
TARIL 2029₹82₹296₹1,065-1%
TARIL 2030₹65₹295₹1,341-1%
TARIL 2031₹56₹295₹1,558-1%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability TARIL goes up, or doubles?

50%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
50%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
29%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹596 within 5 years

The bull case for TARIL

  • TARIL's return on equity of 19.1% ranks in the 82nd percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
  • TARIL's return on capital employed of 23.3% ranks in the 86th percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,065.

The bear case & risks

  • TARIL's P/E of 34.4x is lower than 40% of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
  • High historical volatility (56%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹82.

TARIL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years TARIL compounded at 30%/year with annualized volatility of 56%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹144-₹611, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

TARIL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
0.2%
80% range₹144-₹611
P(price ↑)50%
P(price 2×)11%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
0.6%
80% range₹82-₹1,065
P(price ↑)50%
P(price 2×)24%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
1.0%
80% range₹56-₹1,558
P(price ↑)50%
P(price 2×)29%

TARIL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
TARIL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds TARIL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the TARIL price target & forecast page.

TARIL Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. TARIL scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

TARIL MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy TARIL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox41.65%2.4×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST41.59%2.4×
Groww41.92%2.4×
DhanCHEAPEST41.59%2.4×
Kotak Neo41.67%2.4×
Paytm Money43.15%2.3×
Pocketful42.37%2.4×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST41.59%2.4×
Bajaj Broking45.00%2.2×
Share India41.85%2.4×

Compare every broker on the TARIL MTF page.

About Transformers and Rectifiers (India) Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Transformers and Rectifiers (India) Limited (TARIL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹8,891 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the TARIL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Transformers and Rectifiers (India) Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

TARIL analysis, FAQs

Is Transformers and Rectifiers (India) Limited (TARIL) a good buy?

On the numbers, Transformers and Rectifiers (India) Limited (TARIL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing premium at 34.4× earnings, ROE of 19.1%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is TARIL overvalued or undervalued?

TARIL trades at 34.4× earnings, premium versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the TARIL share price target for 2031?

TARIL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹295, with an 80% range of ₹56-₹1,558 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability TARIL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of TARIL reaching ₹596 (2×) within 5 years is 29%.

What is the bull case for TARIL?

TARIL's return on equity of 19.1% ranks in the 82nd percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026. TARIL's return on capital employed of 23.3% ranks in the 86th percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in TARIL?

TARIL's P/E of 34.4x is lower than 40% of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026. High historical volatility (56%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on TARIL