Case study

TARMAT

Tarmat Ltd

Screens weak1y model +1.0%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

44Score

Tarmat Ltd (TARMAT) Stock Analysis & Case Study

What the numbers say about TARMAT, and the method behind each one.

Tarmat Ltd (TARMAT) trades at ₹59,on the numbers it screens weak, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100.

On the numbers, Tarmat Ltd (TARMAT) screens weak, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100, weighing fairly valued at 20.7× earnings, ROE of 3.5%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

TARMAT fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹147 Cr
Current price
₹59
P/E ratio
20.7×
P/B ratio
0.79×
Book value
₹75
ROCE
3.6%
ROE
3.5%
Piotroski F-Score
4/8

How TARMAT ranks against the 2,982 companies in our screener

Is TARMAT overvalued? TARMAT P/E vs peers

TARMAT trades at 20.7× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

TARMAT share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of TARMAT history (4%/yr drift, 45%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
TARMAT 2027₹37₹65₹116+1%
TARMAT 2028₹29₹66₹152+2%
TARMAT 2029₹25₹67₹181+3%
TARMAT 2030₹21₹67₹215+4%
TARMAT 2031₹18₹68₹255+5%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability TARMAT goes up, or doubles?

51%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
52%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
26%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹129 within 5 years

The bull case for TARMAT

  • TARMAT's P/E of 20.7x is lower than 56% of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026.
  • Low price-to-book of 0.79×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹181.

The bear case & risks

  • TARMAT's return on equity of 3.5% ranks in the 23rd percentile of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026.
  • High historical volatility (45%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹25.

TARMAT volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years TARMAT compounded at 4%/year with annualized volatility of 45%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹37-₹116, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

TARMAT price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.0%
80% range₹37-₹116
P(price ↑)51%
P(price 2×)6%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
3.0%
80% range₹25-₹181
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)20%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
5.0%
80% range₹18-₹255
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)26%

TARMAT price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
TARMAT simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds TARMAT hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the TARMAT price target & forecast page.

TARMAT Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?

4/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. TARMAT scores 4/8, mixed financial health.

About Tarmat Ltd: sector, index & market-cap context

Tarmat Ltd (TARMAT) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹147 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the TARMAT Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Tarmat Ltd's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

TARMAT analysis, FAQs

Is Tarmat Ltd (TARMAT) a good buy?

On the numbers, Tarmat Ltd (TARMAT) screens weak, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100, weighing fairly valued at 20.7× earnings, ROE of 3.5%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is TARMAT overvalued or undervalued?

TARMAT trades at 20.7× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the TARMAT share price target for 2031?

TARMAT's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹68, with an 80% range of ₹18-₹255 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability TARMAT doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of TARMAT reaching ₹129 (2×) within 5 years is 26%.

What is the bull case for TARMAT?

TARMAT's P/E of 20.7x is lower than 56% of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026. Low price-to-book of 0.79×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in TARMAT?

TARMAT's return on equity of 3.5% ranks in the 23rd percentile of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026. High historical volatility (45%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on TARMAT

For information and education only. Downstox is a data and analytics platform, not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or Investment Adviser. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Any scores, ranks, targets or scenarios are model estimates shown with their method, not forecasts or assured outcomes. Markets carry risk; do your own research and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.