Case study

TATACHEM

Tata Chemicals

High-risk on the numbers1y model -22.6%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Tata Chemicals (TATACHEM) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is TATACHEM a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Tata Chemicals (TATACHEM) trades at ₹733,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 27/100.

On the numbers, Tata Chemicals (TATACHEM) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 27/100, weighing expensive at 68.9× earnings, ROE of 1.3%, a 20% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

TATACHEM fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹18,676 Cr
Current price
₹733
P/E ratio
68.9×
P/B ratio
0.88×
Book value
₹832
Dividend yield
1.50%
ROCE
3.4%
ROE
1.3%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is TATACHEM overvalued? TATACHEM P/E vs its sector

TATACHEM's P/E of 68.9× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 1.50% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

TATACHEM P/E
68.9×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
TATACHEM div yield
1.50%
Peer median yield
1.65%

TATACHEM share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of TATACHEM history (-21%/yr drift, 29%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
TATACHEM 2027₹389₹565₹819-23%
TATACHEM 2028₹259₹437₹746-40%
TATACHEM 2029₹179₹345₹645-53%
TATACHEM 2030₹125₹266₹557-64%
TATACHEM 2031₹90₹206₹466-72%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability TATACHEM goes up, or doubles?

20%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
2%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
0%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,458 within 5 years

The bull case for TATACHEM

  • Low price-to-book of 0.88×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹645.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 68.9× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • Return on equity is a soft 1.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 20% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹179.

TATACHEM volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years TATACHEM compounded at -21%/year with annualized volatility of 29%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹389₹819, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

TATACHEM price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
22.6%
80% range₹389–₹819
P(price ↑)20%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
52.7%
80% range₹179–₹645
P(price ↑)7%
P(price 2×)0%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
71.7%
80% range₹90–₹466
P(price ↑)2%
P(price 2×)0%

TATACHEM price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
TATACHEM simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds TATACHEM hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the TATACHEM price target & forecast page.

TATACHEM Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. TATACHEM scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

TATACHEM MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy TATACHEM with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST29.8%3.4×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST29.8%3.4×
DhanCHEAPEST29.8%3.4×

Compare every broker on the TATACHEM MTF page.

TATACHEM vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
TATACHEM (this stock)68.9×1.50%₹18,676 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Tata Chemicals: sector, index & market-cap context

Tata Chemicals (TATACHEM) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹18,676 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the TATACHEM Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Tata Chemicals's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

TATACHEM analysis, FAQs

Is Tata Chemicals (TATACHEM) a good buy?

On the numbers, Tata Chemicals (TATACHEM) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 27/100, weighing expensive at 68.9× earnings, ROE of 1.3%, a 20% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is TATACHEM overvalued or undervalued?

TATACHEM trades at 68.9× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the TATACHEM share price target for 2031?

TATACHEM's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹206, with an 80% range of ₹90₹466 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability TATACHEM doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of TATACHEM reaching ₹1,458 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.

What is the bull case for TATACHEM?

Low price-to-book of 0.88×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in TATACHEM?

A rich 68.9× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 1.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 20% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on TATACHEM