TATAELXSI
Tata Elxsi
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Tata Elxsi (TATAELXSI) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is TATAELXSI a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Tata Elxsi (TATAELXSI) trades at ₹4,115,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100.
On the numbers, Tata Elxsi (TATAELXSI) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100, weighing expensive at 251.0× earnings, ROE of 39.3%, a 15% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
TATAELXSI fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is TATAELXSI overvalued? TATAELXSI P/E vs its sector
TATAELXSI's P/E of 251.0× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 1.82% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.
TATAELXSI share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of TATAELXSI history (-29%/yr drift, 33%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TATAELXSI 2027 | ₹1,887 | ₹2,879 | ₹4,349 | -29% |
| TATAELXSI 2028 | ₹1,104 | ₹2,025 | ₹3,654 | -50% |
| TATAELXSI 2029 | ₹689 | ₹1,432 | ₹2,958 | -65% |
| TATAELXSI 2030 | ₹431 | ₹1,009 | ₹2,363 | -75% |
| TATAELXSI 2031 | ₹277 | ₹714 | ₹1,824 | -82% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability TATAELXSI goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for TATAELXSI
- High return on equity (39.3%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (60.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,958.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 251.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- A steep 90.4× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 15% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹689.
TATAELXSI volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years TATAELXSI compounded at -29%/year with annualized volatility of 33%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,887–₹4,349, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
TATAELXSI price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
TATAELXSI price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds TATAELXSI hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the TATAELXSI price target & forecast page.
TATAELXSI Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. TATAELXSI scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
TATAELXSI MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy TATAELXSI with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 30.1% | 3.3× |
| Zerodha | 25.7% | 3.9× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 24.0% | 4.2× |
Compare every broker on the TATAELXSI MTF page.
TATAELXSI vs peers,sector comparison
About Tata Elxsi: sector, index & market-cap context
Tata Elxsi (TATAELXSI) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹25,649 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.
How the TATAELXSI Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Tata Elxsi's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
TATAELXSI analysis, FAQs
Is Tata Elxsi (TATAELXSI) a good buy?
On the numbers, Tata Elxsi (TATAELXSI) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100, weighing expensive at 251.0× earnings, ROE of 39.3%, a 15% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is TATAELXSI overvalued or undervalued?
TATAELXSI trades at 251.0× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the TATAELXSI share price target for 2031?
TATAELXSI's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹714, with an 80% range of ₹277–₹1,824 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability TATAELXSI doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of TATAELXSI reaching ₹8,131 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for TATAELXSI?
High return on equity (39.3%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (60.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in TATAELXSI?
A rich 251.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 90.4× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 15% chance of finishing above today's price.