TCI
Transport Corporation Of India Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Transport Corporation Of India Limited (TCI) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is TCI a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Transport Corporation Of India Limited (TCI) trades at ₹916,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 68/100.
On the numbers, Transport Corporation Of India Limited (TCI) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 68/100, weighing fairly valued at 15.4× earnings, ROE of 19.2%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
TCI fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How TCI ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- TCI's market cap of 7,040 Cr ranks in the 71st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TCI's book value of ₹334 ranks in the 83rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TCI's promoter holding of 68.7% ranks in the 71st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TCI's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 12.0% ranks in the 45th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TCI's 3-year revenue growth of 9.0% ranks in the 47th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TCI's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.12x is lower than 73% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is TCI overvalued? TCI P/E vs peers
TCI trades at 15.4× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.
TCI share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of TCI history (17%/yr drift, 32%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCI 2027 | ₹652 | ₹980 | ₹1,473 | +7% |
| TCI 2028 | ₹582 | ₹1,047 | ₹1,884 | +14% |
| TCI 2029 | ₹549 | ₹1,120 | ₹2,283 | +22% |
| TCI 2030 | ₹527 | ₹1,197 | ₹2,718 | +31% |
| TCI 2031 | ₹506 | ₹1,279 | ₹3,233 | +40% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability TCI goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for TCI
- TCI's P/E of 15.4x is lower than 73% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TCI's return on equity of 19.2% ranks in the 82nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TCI's return on capital employed of 19.4% ranks in the 79th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,283.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹549.
TCI volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years TCI compounded at 17%/year with annualized volatility of 32%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹652-₹1,473, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
TCI price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
TCI price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds TCI hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the TCI price target & forecast page.
TCI Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. TCI scores 6/8, mixed financial health.
TCI MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy TCI with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 35.00% | 2.9× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 29.76% | 3.4× |
| Groww | 29.86% | 3.3× |
| Dhan | 30.00% | 3.3× |
| Kotak Neo | 40.00% | 2.5× |
| Paytm Money | 29.97% | 3.3× |
| Pocketful | 30.18% | 3.3× |
| Anand RathiCHEAPEST | 29.76% | 3.4× |
| Bajaj Broking | 32.00% | 3.1× |
| Share India | 29.85% | 3.4× |
Compare every broker on the TCI MTF page.
About Transport Corporation Of India Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Transport Corporation Of India Limited (TCI) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹7,040 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the TCI Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Transport Corporation Of India Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
TCI analysis, FAQs
Is Transport Corporation Of India Limited (TCI) a good buy?
On the numbers, Transport Corporation Of India Limited (TCI) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 68/100, weighing fairly valued at 15.4× earnings, ROE of 19.2%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is TCI overvalued or undervalued?
TCI trades at 15.4× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.
What is the TCI share price target for 2031?
TCI's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,279, with an 80% range of ₹506-₹3,233 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability TCI doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of TCI reaching ₹1,833 (2×) within 5 years is 31%.
What is the bull case for TCI?
TCI's P/E of 15.4x is lower than 73% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. TCI's return on equity of 19.2% ranks in the 82nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. TCI's return on capital employed of 19.4% ranks in the 79th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
What are the risks in TCI?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.