Case study

TCPLPACK

TCPL PACKAGING LIMITED

Mixed signals1y model +3.6%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

47Score

TCPL PACKAGING LIMITED (TCPLPACK) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is TCPLPACK a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

TCPL PACKAGING LIMITED (TCPLPACK) trades at ₹3,131,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100.

On the numbers, TCPL PACKAGING LIMITED (TCPLPACK) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing premium at 26.7× earnings, ROE of 15.7%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

TCPLPACK fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹2,849 Cr
Current price
₹3,131
P/E ratio
26.7×
P/B ratio
3.96×
Book value
₹790
Dividend yield
0.80%
ROCE
17.7%
ROE
15.7%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How TCPLPACK ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is TCPLPACK overvalued? TCPLPACK P/E vs peers

TCPLPACK trades at 26.7× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

TCPLPACK share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of TCPLPACK history (15%/yr drift, 42%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
TCPLPACK 2027₹1,889₹3,243₹5,569+4%
TCPLPACK 2028₹1,566₹3,360₹7,208+7%
TCPLPACK 2029₹1,383₹3,480₹8,754+11%
TCPLPACK 2030₹1,220₹3,605₹10,654+15%
TCPLPACK 2031₹1,114₹3,734₹12,514+19%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability TCPLPACK goes up, or doubles?

53%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
57%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
29%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹6,262 within 5 years

The bull case for TCPLPACK

  • TCPLPACK's return on equity of 15.7% ranks in the 74th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹8,754.

The bear case & risks

  • TCPLPACK's P/E of 26.8x is lower than 50% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,383.

TCPLPACK volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years TCPLPACK compounded at 15%/year with annualized volatility of 42%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,889-₹5,569, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

TCPLPACK price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
3.6%
80% range₹1,889-₹5,569
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)6%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
11.2%
80% range₹1,383-₹8,754
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)21%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
19.3%
80% range₹1,114-₹12,514
P(price ↑)57%
P(price 2×)29%

TCPLPACK price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
TCPLPACK simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds TCPLPACK hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the TCPLPACK price target & forecast page.

TCPLPACK Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. TCPLPACK scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

TCPLPACK MTF margin & leverage across 9 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy TCPLPACK with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 9 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.00%2.9×
Zerodha50.00%2.0×
Groww33.99%2.9×
Dhan40.00%2.5×
Kotak Neo100.00%1.0×
Pocketful50.00%2.0×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST33.84%3.0×
Bajaj Broking42.00%2.4×
Share India33.99%2.9×

Compare every broker on the TCPLPACK MTF page.

About TCPL PACKAGING LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

TCPL PACKAGING LIMITED (TCPLPACK) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹2,849 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the TCPLPACK Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of TCPL PACKAGING LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

TCPLPACK analysis, FAQs

Is TCPL PACKAGING LIMITED (TCPLPACK) a good buy?

On the numbers, TCPL PACKAGING LIMITED (TCPLPACK) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing premium at 26.7× earnings, ROE of 15.7%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is TCPLPACK overvalued or undervalued?

TCPLPACK trades at 26.7× earnings, premium versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the TCPLPACK share price target for 2031?

TCPLPACK's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹3,734, with an 80% range of ₹1,114-₹12,514 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability TCPLPACK doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of TCPLPACK reaching ₹6,262 (2×) within 5 years is 29%.

What is the bull case for TCPLPACK?

TCPLPACK's return on equity of 15.7% ranks in the 74th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in TCPLPACK?

TCPLPACK's P/E of 26.8x is lower than 50% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on TCPLPACK