Case study

TECH

Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund - Aditya Birla Sun Life Nifty It Etf

Worth a closer look1y model +7.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

61Score

Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund - Aditya Birla Sun Life Nifty It Etf (TECH) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is TECH a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100.

On the numbers, Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund - Aditya Birla Sun Life Nifty It Etf (TECH) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

How TECH ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

TECH is not currently one of the 2,373 companies in our live screener universe, so no percentile comparison is available for it here.

TECH share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.4y of TECH history (-10%/yr drift, 24%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
TECH 2027₹27₹37₹51+7%
TECH 2028₹26₹40₹62+15%
TECH 2029₹25₹43₹73+23%
TECH 2030₹25₹46₹85+32%
TECH 2031₹25₹49₹98+42%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability TECH goes up, or doubles?

61%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
74%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
27%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹69 within 5 years

The bull case for TECH

  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 61% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹37 (+7%).
  • Relatively low volatility (24%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹73.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹25.

TECH volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 1.4 years TECH compounded at -10%/year with annualized volatility of 24%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹27-₹51, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

TECH price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 1.4 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
7.3%
80% range₹27-₹51
P(price ↑)61%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
23.4%
80% range₹25-₹73
P(price ↑)68%
P(price 2×)12%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
41.9%
80% range₹25-₹98
P(price ↑)74%
P(price 2×)27%

TECH price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
TECH simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds TECH hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the TECH price target & forecast page.

TECH MTF margin & leverage across 6 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy TECH with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 6 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox27.41%3.6×
Groww27.48%3.6×
Dhan27.42%3.6×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST27.40%3.6×
Paytm Money27.48%3.6×
Anand Rathi27.42%3.6×

Compare every broker on the TECH MTF page.

About Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund - Aditya Birla Sun Life Nifty It Etf: sector, index & market-cap context

Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund - Aditya Birla Sun Life Nifty It Etf (TECH) is an NSE-listed company. See more stocks on our screener.

How the TECH Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund - Aditya Birla Sun Life Nifty It Etf's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

TECH analysis, FAQs

Is Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund - Aditya Birla Sun Life Nifty It Etf (TECH) a good buy?

On the numbers, Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund - Aditya Birla Sun Life Nifty It Etf (TECH) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is TECH overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation ratios for TECH are tracked live on Downstox.

What is the TECH share price target for 2031?

TECH's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹49, with an 80% range of ₹25-₹98 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability TECH doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of TECH reaching ₹69 (2×) within 5 years is 27%.

What is the bull case for TECH?

A 10,000-path probability model puts a 61% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹37 (+7%). Relatively low volatility (24%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.

What are the risks in TECH?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on TECH