Case study

TFCILTD

TOURISM FINANCE CORP. OF

Mixed signals1y model +24.0%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

TOURISM FINANCE CORP. OF (TFCILTD) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is TFCILTD a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100.

On the numbers, TOURISM FINANCE CORP. OF (TFCILTD) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing a 67% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

TFCILTD share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of TFCILTD history (32%/yr drift, 48%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
TFCILTD 2027₹49₹92₹172+24%
TFCILTD 2028₹47₹113₹272+53%
TFCILTD 2029₹48₹137₹408+85%
TFCILTD 2030₹51₹172₹577+132%
TFCILTD 2031₹53₹213₹826+188%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability TFCILTD goes up, or doubles?

67%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
84%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
63%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹148 within 5 years

The bull case for TFCILTD

  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 67% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹92 (+24%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹408.

The bear case & risks

  • High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹48.

TFCILTD volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years TFCILTD compounded at 32%/year with annualized volatility of 48%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹49₹172, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

TFCILTD price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
24.0%
80% range₹49–₹172
P(price ↑)67%
P(price 2×)16%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
85.0%
80% range₹48–₹408
P(price ↑)78%
P(price 2×)46%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
187.6%
80% range₹53–₹826
P(price ↑)84%
P(price 2×)63%

TFCILTD price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
TFCILTD simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds TFCILTD hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the TFCILTD price target & forecast page.

TFCILTD MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy TFCILTD with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST38.0%2.6×
DhanCHEAPEST38.0%2.6×

Compare every broker on the TFCILTD MTF page.

TFCILTD vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
TFCILTD (this stock)
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About TOURISM FINANCE CORP. OF: sector, index & market-cap context

TOURISM FINANCE CORP. OF (TFCILTD) is an NSE-listed company.

How the TFCILTD Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of TOURISM FINANCE CORP. OF's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

TFCILTD analysis, FAQs

Is TOURISM FINANCE CORP. OF (TFCILTD) a good buy?

On the numbers, TOURISM FINANCE CORP. OF (TFCILTD) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing a 67% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is TFCILTD overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation ratios for TFCILTD are tracked live on Downstox.

What is the TFCILTD share price target for 2031?

TFCILTD's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹213, with an 80% range of ₹53₹826 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability TFCILTD doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of TFCILTD reaching ₹148 (2×) within 5 years is 63%.

What is the bull case for TFCILTD?

A 10,000-path probability model puts a 67% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹92 (+24%).

What are the risks in TFCILTD?

High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on TFCILTD