THERMAX
Thermax
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Thermax (THERMAX) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is THERMAX a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Thermax (THERMAX) trades at ₹4,864,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 35/100.
On the numbers, Thermax (THERMAX) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 35/100, weighing expensive at 85.6× earnings, ROE of 12.9%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
THERMAX fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is THERMAX overvalued? THERMAX P/E vs its sector
THERMAX's P/E of 85.6× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.29% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
THERMAX share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of THERMAX history (-5%/yr drift, 38%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THERMAX 2027 | ₹2,565 | ₹4,150 | ₹6,734 | -12% |
| THERMAX 2028 | ₹1,889 | ₹3,649 | ₹7,265 | -22% |
| THERMAX 2029 | ₹1,420 | ₹3,250 | ₹7,531 | -31% |
| THERMAX 2030 | ₹1,119 | ₹2,868 | ₹7,564 | -39% |
| THERMAX 2031 | ₹858 | ₹2,561 | ₹7,406 | -46% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability THERMAX goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for THERMAX
- A healthy 12.9% return on equity.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹7,531.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 85.6× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- A steep 10.4× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,420.
THERMAX volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years THERMAX compounded at -5%/year with annualized volatility of 38%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹2,565–₹6,734, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
THERMAX price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
THERMAX price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds THERMAX hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the THERMAX price target & forecast page.
THERMAX Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. THERMAX scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
THERMAX MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy THERMAX with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 32.6% | 3.1× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 32.6% | 3.1× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 32.6% | 3.1× |
Compare every broker on the THERMAX MTF page.
THERMAX vs peers,sector comparison
About Thermax: sector, index & market-cap context
Thermax (THERMAX) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹57,903 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the THERMAX Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Thermax's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
THERMAX analysis, FAQs
Is Thermax (THERMAX) a good buy?
On the numbers, Thermax (THERMAX) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 35/100, weighing expensive at 85.6× earnings, ROE of 12.9%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is THERMAX overvalued or undervalued?
THERMAX trades at 85.6× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the THERMAX share price target for 2031?
THERMAX's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2,561, with an 80% range of ₹858–₹7,406 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability THERMAX doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of THERMAX reaching ₹9,405 (2×) within 5 years is 6%.
What is the bull case for THERMAX?
A healthy 12.9% return on equity.
What are the risks in THERMAX?
A rich 85.6× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 10.4× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price.