Case study

THERMAX

Thermax Limited.

Tread carefully1y model +5.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

33Score

Thermax Limited. (THERMAX) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is THERMAX a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Thermax Limited. (THERMAX) trades at ₹3,991,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100.

On the numbers, Thermax Limited. (THERMAX) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 86.6× earnings, ROE of 10.6%, a 56% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

THERMAX fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹47,659 Cr
Current price
₹3,991
P/E ratio
86.6×
P/B ratio
8.56×
Book value
₹466
Dividend yield
0.35%
ROCE
13.9%
ROE
10.6%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How THERMAX ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is THERMAX overvalued? THERMAX P/E vs peers

THERMAX trades at 86.6× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

THERMAX share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of THERMAX history (15%/yr drift, 39%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
THERMAX 2027₹2,633₹4,301₹7,024+6%
THERMAX 2028₹2,271₹4,556₹9,141+12%
THERMAX 2029₹2,010₹4,826₹11,587+19%
THERMAX 2030₹1,859₹5,113₹14,062+26%
THERMAX 2031₹1,755₹5,416₹16,713+33%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability THERMAX goes up, or doubles?

56%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
63%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
33%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹8,120 within 5 years

The bull case for THERMAX

  • Thermax Limited. is part of the nifty100 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹11,587.

The bear case & risks

  • THERMAX's P/E of 87.9x is lower than 13% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A steep 8.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • THERMAX's return on equity of 10.6% ranks in the 52nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹2,010.

THERMAX volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years THERMAX compounded at 15%/year with annualized volatility of 39%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹2,633-₹7,024, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

THERMAX price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
5.9%
80% range₹2,633-₹7,024
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)5%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
18.9%
80% range₹2,010-₹11,587
P(price ↑)61%
P(price 2×)22%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
33.4%
80% range₹1,755-₹16,713
P(price ↑)63%
P(price 2×)33%

THERMAX price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
THERMAX simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds THERMAX hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the THERMAX price target & forecast page.

THERMAX Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. THERMAX scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

THERMAX MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy THERMAX with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox33.20%3.0×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST33.18%3.0×
Groww33.25%3.0×
Dhan33.18%3.0×
Kotak Neo33.22%3.0×
Paytm Money33.35%3.0×
Pocketful33.35%3.0×
Fyers34.48%2.9×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST33.18%3.0×
Bajaj Broking35.00%2.9×
Share India33.24%3.0×

Compare every broker on the THERMAX MTF page.

About Thermax Limited.: sector, index & market-cap context

Thermax Limited. (THERMAX) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹47,659 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the THERMAX Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Thermax Limited.'s public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

THERMAX analysis, FAQs

Is Thermax Limited. (THERMAX) a good buy?

On the numbers, Thermax Limited. (THERMAX) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 86.6× earnings, ROE of 10.6%, a 56% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is THERMAX overvalued or undervalued?

THERMAX trades at 86.6× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the THERMAX share price target for 2031?

THERMAX's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹5,416, with an 80% range of ₹1,755-₹16,713 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability THERMAX doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of THERMAX reaching ₹8,120 (2×) within 5 years is 33%.

What is the bull case for THERMAX?

Thermax Limited. is part of the nifty100 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in THERMAX?

THERMAX's P/E of 87.9x is lower than 13% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 8.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. THERMAX's return on equity of 10.6% ranks in the 52nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on THERMAX