Case study

TI

Tilaknagar Industries Limited

Tread carefully1y model +4.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

36Score

Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is TI a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI) trades at ₹488,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 36/100.

On the numbers, Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 36/100, weighing expensive at 53.5× earnings, ROE of 13.1%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

TI fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹12,093 Cr
Current price
₹488
P/E ratio
53.5×
P/B ratio
4.03×
Book value
₹121
Dividend yield
0.20%
ROCE
11.8%
ROE
13.1%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How TI ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is TI overvalued? TI P/E vs peers

TI trades at 53.5× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

TI share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of TI history (35%/yr drift, 48%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
TI 2027₹276₹512₹950+4%
TI 2028₹225₹534₹1,265+9%
TI 2029₹191₹557₹1,628+13%
TI 2030₹170₹581₹1,982+18%
TI 2031₹155₹606₹2,365+23%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability TI goes up, or doubles?

54%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
57%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
33%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹982 within 5 years

The bull case for TI

  • TI's return on equity of 13.1% ranks in the 64th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,628.

The bear case & risks

  • TI's P/E of 53.7x is lower than 24% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹191.

TI volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years TI compounded at 35%/year with annualized volatility of 48%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹276-₹950, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

TI price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
4.3%
80% range₹276-₹950
P(price ↑)54%
P(price 2×)9%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
13.5%
80% range₹191-₹1,628
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)25%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
23.5%
80% range₹155-₹2,365
P(price ↑)57%
P(price 2×)33%

TI price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
TI simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds TI hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the TI price target & forecast page.

TI Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. TI scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

TI MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy TI with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.00%2.9×
Zerodha34.34%2.9×
Groww34.41%2.9×
Dhan35.00%2.9×
Kotak Neo34.97%2.9×
Paytm Money44.38%2.3×
Pocketful34.69%2.9×
Fyers34.48%2.9×
Anand Rathi34.34%2.9×
Bajaj Broking42.00%2.4×
Share IndiaCHEAPEST34.27%2.9×

Compare every broker on the TI MTF page.

About Tilaknagar Industries Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹12,093 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the TI Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Tilaknagar Industries Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

TI analysis, FAQs

Is Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI) a good buy?

On the numbers, Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 36/100, weighing expensive at 53.5× earnings, ROE of 13.1%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is TI overvalued or undervalued?

TI trades at 53.5× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the TI share price target for 2031?

TI's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹606, with an 80% range of ₹155-₹2,365 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability TI doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of TI reaching ₹982 (2×) within 5 years is 33%.

What is the bull case for TI?

TI's return on equity of 13.1% ranks in the 64th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in TI?

TI's P/E of 53.7x is lower than 24% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on TI